The charts that show how the 2017 local elections could decimate Labour

How the 2017 local elections could decimate Labour
How the 2017 local elections could decimate Labour

Labour look set to lose dozens of councillors in May's local elections, meaning the potential loss of control over several councils across the country. 

On 4 May, voters in England, Scotland and Wales will elect councillors and - in eight areas - mayors.

The English elections will see 2,370 seats contested in 27 county councils, seven English unitary authorities and one metropolitan authority, while all Scottish and Welsh councils are also up for election. 

Local election: Council seats defended by each party

Electoral forecasts estimate that Labour could lose as many as 125 council seats, which would be devastating for the opposition party.

Jeremy Corbyn's party's vote share is likely to fall significantly lower than it did the last time these councils were up for election, when Ed Miliband was leader, which will benefit Theresa May's party. 

The Conservatives will hope to build on recent electoral success, which saw them win Copeland in the first time since 1982 that a Government has gained a seat at a by-election.

The election is also expected to see Ukip's share of the national vote halving from last time to just 10 per cent, while the Lib Dems are expected to build on their recent local successes. 

Labour could become Scotland's third party

Scotland was the scene of a spectacular collapse in Labour support at the 2015 General Election with Ed Miliband's party losing 40 seats to the SNP.

A similar bloodbath looks likely on 4 May when all 1,223 Scottish council seats are up for election.

Under Jeremy Corbyn Labour support has fallen even further north of the border, with recent polls showing that the party could slump to third place, behind the Conservatives, when it comes to vote share.

Chart: Voting intention polling for Scottish council elections

In 2012 - the last time Scottish councils were elected - Labour attracted 31.4 per cent of the vote, slightly behind the SNP on 32.2 per cent and well clear of the Conservatives on 13.3 per cent.

However, polling by Ipsos Mori and STV in March showed that only 17 per cent of Scots were intending to vote Labour this time around, less than the 19 per cent who said they'd vote Conservative. The SNP would be well ahead of both on 46 per cent.

If this were to be the final result on 4 May it would be a historic low for Labour in Scotland and could well mean they lose a significant number of the 374 council seats they currently hold.

Map - Labour's current position in Scottish councils

While Labour only controls five councils in Scotland outright, they have minority control or a place in a ruling coalition in a further 14 council areas. This effectively puts them in at least joint control of around half the country.

However, this gives them a fragile grip on power; one that could be broken by small, let alone significant, swings away from the party.

Glasgow City Council looks particularly vulnerable for Labour. Their lead over the SNP here is just 12 seats and, given the huge swing the SNP enjoyed in the city in the 2015 General Election, this could be easily wiped out.

It's not just Scottish seats that are vulnerable

Under usual circumstances local council elections are something of an open goal for whoever is in opposition, with voters taking advantage of the opportunity to give the Government a kicking.

However, these are not normal times. Jeremy Corbyn has alienated a large portion of former Labour voters and - while the majority of councils up for grabs in England are Conservative strongholds - all the signs point to Tory gains rather than losses.

Labour only completely controls four of the 35 councils up for election on 4 May - Durham, Derbyshire, Doncaster and Nottinghamshire - but it also has minority control in Northumberland and is the major coalition partner in Lancashire and Cumbria.

Of these councils Labour only has a strong foothold in Durham and Doncaster. Given Labour's performance in the Copeland by-election, the rest of Cumbria may well follow suit by favouring the Conservatives, while Labour lead the Conservatives by just four seats in Lancashire.

Map - Labour's position in English councils

While low turnout is usual in council elections they should give further indications of how the party is faring in Brexit heartlands such as these.

Theresa May's dedication to a hard Brexit has proved appealing to voters in recent polls and this could eat into UKIP's votes as well as Labour's.

Wales is a more secure area for Labour

Labour are more secure in Wales by virtue of the fact that they hold large majorities in the areas where they are in control.

They have their slenderest lead in Merthyr Tydfil, but given that the Labour majority here is still as many as 17 seats there is little prospect of this switching hands.

In last year's Welsh Assembly elections Labour's share of the vote was 34.7 per cent, down from 42.3 per cent in 2011. However, due to the distribution of voters they only lost one seat. There's a strong prospect we'll see something similar happening in the upcoming council elections.

Map - Labour's current position in Welsh councils

Mayors will lead to good headlines for Labour

Pollster Robert Hayward has predicted the worst local election results for an opposition party since 1985 - excluding General Election years.

But the mayoral elections - such as those for the new "metro mayors" in Manchester and Liverpool - will most likely give Labour something to cheer about.

Such Labour strongholds in northern urban areas should give the party some high-profile figures across the country. 

Three former and current Labour MPs are standing: Andy Burnham in Manchester, Steve Rotheram in Liverpool, and Siôn Simon in the West Midlands.

However, the Tories are hoping for success in the West Midlands with Andy Street, former managing director of John Lewis.

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Lib Dem "fightback"? 

There may well be another story to watch in the council elections, with the Lib Dems continuing to make a comeback as the only big anti-Brexit voice. 

With success in several council by-elections, as well as in the constituency by-election for Richmond Park, Tim Farron's party will hope to show further signs of growth after their decimation in the 2015 general election.

Some polling forecasts see the Lib Dems gaining around 100 seats in the election. This could mean, the party hopes, that they will assert full control of Cornwall Council. Cumbria and Somerset will also be in their sight.

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