China is building its carrier air power. But Britannia still rules the waves for now
The Chinese navy’s two active aircraft carriers drilled together for the first time in late October. And the dual-carrier operations in the South China Sea, involving the ex-Soviet flattop Liaoning and her Chinese-built sister ship Shandong, weren’t the only surprise for Western observers of China’s rising naval power.
The Chinese fleet’s newest carrier borne warplanes also made their operational debuts during the maritime show of force. The first deployments of the Shenyang J-15B fighter and Shenyang J-15D electronic-warfare jet are big steps forward for China’s naval air power.
Beijing was understandably proud of the navy’s combined carrier ops in the South China Sea late last month. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) circulated a lot of photos and videos of the exercise. Scrutinising the imagery, aviation expert Andreas Rupprecht counted more than 30 J-15s in the air or on Liaoning’s and Shandong’s decks.
The fighters included at least 16 older J-15As, 13 upgraded J-15Bs and two or more J-15Ds. The main difference between the models of the twin-engine, supersonic J-15 – besides the radar-jamming gear on the D – is that both new models have tougher landing gear for launching via catapult.
And that points to the ultimate destiny of the newer jets. For now, they operate from the Liaoning and Shandong, neither of which have catapults and instead launch their planes via bow-mounted ramps – a method that is less efficient and less safe than launch via catapult, and which restricts the amount of fuel and weapons a plane can have aboard on launch.
But the Chinese navy’s new carrier, the 80,000-ton Fujian, does have catapults. Fujian is undergoing sea trials and won’t enter front-line service until next year, at the earliest. Once she’s ready, however, she’ll need planes. It’s likely the beefed up J-15Bs and J-16Ds will eventually depart their current carriers and embark on Fujian, instead.
All that is to say, Beijing is gradually assembling all the components of a truly modern carrier battle group. The carrier is nearly ready. Her escorts are already in service. And her air wing is coming together, too.
In addition to her fourth generation J-15Bs and J-15Ds, Fujian is likely to embark Shenyagon J-35 fifth generation stealth fighters and Xi’an KJ-600 radar planes. Together, these aircraft comprise an air wing that’s roughly similar to the US Navy’s own carrier air wings. The J-15B is equivalent to the USN’s workhorse F/A-18E/F Super Hornet strike fighter; the J-15D is similar to the EA-18G Prowler electronic warfare jet; the J-35 broadly matches up to the F-35C tailhook stealth fighter; the KJ-600 is China’s answer to America’s E-2D Hawkeye radar plane.
Britain’s Royal Navy is planning to send a carrier on deployment to the western Pacific next year: Britain’s new-ish carriers are roughly equivalent in capability to the Liaoning and Shandong, lacking catapults. Rather than ramp takeoff and tailhook landing with normally configured jets, Britain uses the vertical-thrust B version of the F-35. This makes ramp takeoffs and lands vertically, though there is a plan for British F-35Bs to make rolling landings without tailhook, hopefully permitting them to set down with weapons still aboard or alternatively to reduce wear and tear on their engines.
The F-35B, due to the weight and bulk of its vertical thrust equipment, carries significantly less fuel and weapons than a catapult-and-tailhook jet, just like the Liaoning and Shandong’s planes – though the Chinese air wings are equipped to conduct air-to-air refuelling, which the British are not. Nonetheless, Britain’s planned wing of 24 fifth-generation stealth fighters next year will be more powerful in the air than anything China can send to sea at that point in its carriers.
When the Fujian gets her own fifth-gen catapult fighters backed by proper radar and EW planes the balance of power will tip back in Beijing’s favour, but next year at least – provided it stays out of range of shore-based air power – the Royal Navy’s carrier group will rule the waves around it.
The prospect of a modern Chinese carrier embarking a modern air wing should alarm friends of a free and democratic Taiwan. Fujian could play a central role in a Chinese blockade of the island country – or worse, a Chinese invasion. The Chinese carrier would be able to project airpower in the Pacific on the seaward side of Taiwan, isolating the independent island more completely.
But some perspective is in order. While the Chinese navy is close to matching the capability of a current US Navy air wing, it’s not about to match the capacity of America’s carrier flotilla. The US Navy already operates 11 carriers that are bigger than Fujian, as well as nine air wings to fly off those carriers. (Fleet leaders assume at least two flattops will be in overhaul at any given time.)
And the American air wings aren’t standing still. They’re about to begin embarking Boeing MQ-25 tanker drones, which may well morph into a long-ranging unmanned stealth strike platform. The fifth-gen F-35C is gradually replacing the fourth-gen F-18. And a new sixth generation carrier fighter, a secretive stealth model possessing greater range than current fighters, is in development.
Perhaps more importantly, if the US Navy sails to Taiwan’s defence, it isn’t likely to sail alone. The Japanese navy is preparing its first two small carriers and F-35B stealth fighters to operate from them. If the Chinese moved on Taiwan, the Japanese could move their own forces into the East China Sea and Philippine Sea – and block key maritime chokepoints. As we’ve seen, there might even be a British carrier about as well.
That could free up American naval forces to focus their firepower on the bottled-up Chinese fleet.