China is almost ready
China is nearly ready. Laser-focused for more than two decades on building up a military force that could feasibly cross the Taiwan Strait, land on Taiwanese beaches and then march on Taipei, the Chinese Communist Party is preparing to finally achieve its ultimate goal: brutally “reunifying” Taiwan’s young democracy with China’s entrenched autocracy.
“The stakes scarcely could be higher,” analysts Andrew Erickson and Gabriel Collins wrote in a new volume for the US Naval War College. Ominously, the coming clash could occur at a nadir for American strength and resolve. Inasmuch as Taiwan is counting on the United States to save it, it’s risking its own future.
“China has achieved the most dramatic military buildup since World War II through concerted efforts over the past quarter-century,” Erickson and Collins wrote. “Previously limited in its ability to execute its [war plans], the People’s Liberation Army is making rapid progress toward acquiring achievability.”
There’s no time for dawdling in Taipei and Washington DC. Admiral Lisa Franchetti, the US Navy’s top officer, has signalled that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is likeliest to kick off by 2027, in what we now know will be the third year of US President-elect Donald Trump’s second term. Trump’s vengeful temperament, fading cognition and authoritarian aspirations add further risk to an already fraught state of affairs.
“The clock is ticking for Taiwan,” Erickson and Collins write. “Taiwan must relentlessly prioritise its own defence where it matters most.” Taipei’s goal should be to transform Taiwan into an indigestible porcupine.
That means doubling down on some of the capabilities the Taiwanese are already acquiring, albeit too slowly, Erickson and Collins explained. These include air defences, mines, anti-ship missiles, drones and coastal artillery – defensive systems that are inexpensive, available in large numbers, mobile, easy to hide and lethal to an exposed attacker.
“In some cases, Taipei and Washington have made initial, gradual efforts but must do much more – and faster – to keep PLA forces at bay,” Erickson and Collins wrote. Taiwan is buying NASAMS air-defense batteries, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, artillery and cluster shells from the United States, while developing its own mines and explosive drones.
But the United States is struggling to supply the American-made systems on time as its overstretched arms industry also fills orders for US and Ukrainian forces. For Taiwan, this is a serious problem. As an island, it could be subjected to an air and sea blockade. “The systems ‘on island’ when the first [Chinese] missile lands are very likely what Taiwan’s military will have to fight with for at least the first 30 days afterward,” Erickson and Collins pointed out.
For that reason, it’s imperative that America focusses on “clearing the extensive backlog of systems that Taiwan has purchased but that the United States has not yet delivered,” according to Erickson and Collins.
But don’t expect greater efficiency in Washington DC. If Trump gets his way, his administration – which assumes office in January – will be stacked with sycophants and extreme ideologues rather than effective administrators.
Trump’s pick for secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, is a Fox TV host and former National Guard major whose military experience includes a spell as a prison guard at Guantanamo Bay as well as combat duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. Hegseth was involved in controversy when it emerged that he has a tattoo reading “Deus Vult” – a mediaeval Christian motto which has become popular with white supremacists and the Christian far right in modern times. He also has a Jerusalem cross tattoo, which can have many meanings but was the emblem of the Crusader kingdom of Jerusalem during the Middle Ages.
Equally troubling, Trump’s allies have proposed purging top military leaders in order to replace them with close allies of the president-elect, a convicted felon who has appeared equivocal as to whether he would act as a “dictator” on assuming the presidency.
During a town hall in 2023, Trump was asked:
“You would never abuse power as retribution against anybody?”
“Except for Day One,” Trump responded.
“Meaning?” the interviewer asked.
“I want to close the border and I want to drill, drill, drill...,” Trump said.
“That’s not retribution,” the interviewer interjected.
“We love this guy,” Trump said, addressing the audience and referring to the interviewer. “He says, ‘You’re not going to be a dictator, are you?’ I said, ‘No, no, no, other than Day One. We’re closing the border, and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I’m not a dictator.’”
Even if Trump’s regime is inclined to defend Taiwan, it might not be able to mount an effective defence if – as expected – American institutions fray in the coming years. If the Taiwanese value their lives, their independence and their prosperity, they must arm themselves with the best possible weapons as quickly as possible. And they must not assume the Americans can help speed up the process.
“Taiwan need not be thus condemned – provided that it doubles down on efforts to follow the smartest available strategy, with strong American support,” Erickson and Collins advised.
The “strong American support” is the least realistic part of that prescription.