Come on Labour, you’re not going to get a general election – so get behind a Final Say on Brexit

Divided, no idea what they actually want from a Brexit deal, suffering badly from “cakeism” (simultaneously wanting to eat and keep it), a leader trying their damnedest to keep the whole rickety show on the road. Yes, that’s right: Labour.

And it’s good news the party is all over the place on Europe – and, more immediately, the so-called second referendum – because it does at least suggest that, when the time is ripe, Labour might finally swing round to the idea. That time will be when Labour’s leaders realise that they’ve got far more chance of getting, and winning, a second referendum than of forcing the Conservatives out of government and securing a general election in 2019, and certainly not before Brexit. (Tory Brexit, that is.)

Not everyone, of course, has yet heard that particular penny drop.

Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, told the Today programme that people would look to a more “socially disruptive way” of expressing themselves if they feel that the their democratic rights were being cut off by being asked to vote again on the terms of a Brexit deal. It would, he added, give succour to the extreme right and undermine the principle of democracy.

Not as much, you’d have to say, as an economic slump.

But Gardiner is in a minority, even at the top table he occupies. Labour as a whole, the grassroots (from Momentum to the “centrist dads”) are firm Remainers and firmly in favour of a Final Say on the Brexit deal, such as it may turn out to be. As we will see during the party conference season, many in Labour support the People’s Vote movement headed by Chuka Umunna. The Parliamentary Labour Party is plainly in favour. Even some at the very top of the party have made timidly supportive noises about it.

So, both Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, and John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, have studiously refused to rule it out. Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, has been more equivocal. Last November wrote a letter to constituents in which she said: “I will argue for the right of the electorate to vote on any deal that is finally agreed.” A month later that was finessed to not wanting a second referendum. She’s flexible, though.

Len McCluskey, leader of the Unite union, the biggest financial supporter of Labour, has been even clearer, promising to use “all of the influence and power of oratory that I have” if his members back the move for a second ballot (polling suggests that they would). Other unions such as Community, representing steelworkers, have also said they are in favour of a Final Say.

Where does Jeremy Corbyn stand? He has wobbled around a fair bit. His usual line is words to the effect “we are not currently in favour” – which of course leaves open that in future they would be.

What he does want (I assume) is to be prime minister of a Labour government. He and his closest allies want a Labour government, and they want that far more than a second referendum.

However, it is very clear that the Conservatives will do anything to keep a high tax, nationalising, terrorist-fraternising Labour Party out of government – including managing to unite around Theresa May. Abject, morbid, bowel-clearing fear of Corbyn waving from the steps of No 10 is about the only thing that binds the scrapping Tories together. Tory MPs will never vote a Tory government out, even though they’d be perfectly happy to ditch their leader.

(This is nothing new. They’ve dumped previous sitting Tory prime ministers, including Margaret Thatcher, and almost John Major, as well as lots of duds in opposition, from Ted Heath to Iain Duncan Smith. Thatcher had her finest hour when, in her last hours as prime minister and leader she responded to Labour as it was laying down a motion of no confidence in her government. The Tories governed Britain for a further 18 months and went on to beat Labour in the 1992 general election and won themselves another five years in power. Corbyn was around for all that, and he should recall the lesson: they are ruthless.)

The lessons of last year’s disastrous snap general election gamble have not been lost on the Conservative parliamentary party. None wish to lose their nice jobs, and they always put themselves before their party and their party before the country.

So, sooner or later, Labour will get real about its prospects and realise that it could inflict a stunning reversal on the Government by forcing though a Final Say referendum in parliament – along with virtually all of the other opposition MPs and Tory rebels.

After that, and a victory for staying in the EU with Labour seeking “jobs first” policies across Europe, then the Tory disarray would be complete and, in due course, Corbyn would have a better chance of inheriting a country that was not an economic and political wreck. He’d also find himself the object of unwanted affection from Umunna and even one Mr Tony Blair, his party reunited and back in power. Job done.

There’s also the small matter of putting the country first. OK, Corbyn doesn’t much like the EU; he was a “seven out of 10” man in the last referendum. He fears the EU will prevent him from implementing socialism, nationalising stuff and subsidising lame ducks. He dislikes the “bosses club”. But does he really want the Rees-Mogg style hard Brexit instead? The one that would allow the Tory party to destroy everything Labour has built in a century of political work?

That, Gardiner and others might reflect, could cause a great deal more social disruption than having anther democratic vote.

Nigel Farage seems to be up for another referendum – by his actions if not his words – so why not Corbyn?