It all comes down to numbers. Try playing the BBC’s majority-builder game, which offers some likely scenarios and gives you the chance to work out plausible governments.
More often than not you’re likely to find the Conservatives fall short, even with Lib Dem and DUP support. Labour is often relying on either the SNP and/or the Lib Dems to get into power.
That reflects the balance of probabilities as assessed by the Political Studies Association, a group of unspeakably clever academics who suggest the most likely scenario is bad news for Cameron.
"The single most likely outcome is at the bottom of the pie chart,“ says Dr Stephen Fisher of the University of Oxford.
"That is a seriously hung parliament with the Conservatives as clearly the largest party but a majority on the left, including the SNP and Liberal Democrats.”
His findings are supported by the academics at electionforecast.co.uk, which give the Conservatives a mean 284 seats, compared to 276Read More »from Miliband is now most likely to be next prime minister