Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, swing voters and gay marriage

This week, Mitt Romney asserted that “marriage is a relationship between one man and one woman”, which is reassuring from a politician whose religion tolerates polygamy.

His decision to position himself on the side of traditional American family values is part of a culture war deeply woven into the fabric of American politics. Issues such as gay marriage will be a key influence on voters in November’s presidential election, and figures suggest Romney has much to gain here.

A Gallup poll revealed that 23 per cent of independent voters, whose ballots are expected to be decisive in November’s general election, were now less likely to vote for Barack Obama, while 11 per cent said that they were more likely to back him.

So, given this, it is perhaps surprising that Romney has stayed relatively quiet on the issue. But there are two main reasons.

The first is that Romney is, in the eyes of many Republicans, inconsistent in his opinion towards homosexuality.

He supports “domestic partnerships” for same-sex couples that include “the potential for health benefits and rights of survivorship”. What else they might include is not clear, and this is the tricky part for a candidate trying to keep social conservatives happy without alienating swing voters by seeming insensitive to the problems gay couples face because of their unequal legal treatment.

In short, “no legal recognition” for gay couples has become a minority position, and this brings us to the second reason for keeping culture a sideshow: Sixteen years ago, when Barack Obama supported “legalising same-sex marriages” as a candidate for the Illinois Senate, a Gallup poll found that only 27 per cent of Americans agreed with him. This month, that number has risen to 50 per cent. People are coming round to the idea.
So while Obama’s decision to publicly favour gay marriage has negative repercussions in the short term, it gives the electorate six months to not only forget the issue, but perhaps even warm to it.

It’s a shrewd move. Gay marriage was always going to be an issue in a media landscape that demands politicians to commit to for/against decisions. Obama would look weak if he tried to dodge questions on it.

So the Obama camp cannot sit on it, but they cannot sit on the economic debate either, and this may be more decisive.
 
A two minute Democrat television ad aired in swing states focused on GS Steel, a company bought by Romney’s Bain Capital with $13 million in debt — and which filed for bankruptcy with $533 million in debt.

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Despite this, the Republican camp remains strongest sticking to an economic message. The still-struggling economy is the major issue of the campaign and one that could give Romney a natural advantage. CNBC’s Mad Money called Mitt Romney “The best businessman in North America” - strong praise indeed, even from a show called ‘Mad Money’.

But a businessman is not a statesman. Furthermore, private equity is only marginally less unpopular in America than it is in the UK, which is why the Democrats must fight both fronts.

Gay marriage, like abolition of the death penalty, is an excellent barometer for a well developed society. It will happen sooner or later and Romney should know this, but how hard will he fight it?