Why Cameron is more plotted against than his contemporaries

In many ways, David Cameron has had a good run so far. He won an election on a fairly centrist agenda, managing to avoid the regular pitfalls of over-promising on manifesto pledges, and ostracising the Tories’ main supporter base.

His Labour opposition is organised but unconvincing, whilst Cameron’s coalition partner - Nick Clegg - has succeeded in alienating his own party’s core voters, whilst failing to represent the majority (read non-Tory) mood on key issues like the NHS.

Despite this, stories are rife about Tory plots to dethrone Cameron.

Many names have been bandied around as leadership challengers; Education Secretary Michael Gove, Home Secretary Theresa May and of course the people’s choice; Boris Johnson. One hears tip-offs about these supposed contenders, but is there really enough negative feeling within the Conservative Party, and if so what are the telltale signs of a challenge in 2015?

There are contextual elements to consider. For one, the modern backbencher tends to be aligned to his party’s traditional values.

When Tony Blair became Labour leader, the most vehement opposition came from the trade unionists. Cameron has embarked on a similar centrist agenda with the Conservative Party, and recent months have seen electoral losses to UKIP, a record high Labour approval rating and a not un-substantial Tory rebellion on the gay marriage vote - 137 against.

But Cameron insulates himself against unpopular policies. The perception is that George Osborne is wholly responsible for sticking to austerity - a perception that got him booed at the Olympic Stadium last year. Similarly, the encroachment of the private sector within the NHS is dealt with by proxy. The recent move of Jeremy Hunt replacing Andrew Lansley as Health Minister is Cameron replacing one political punch-bag with another.

Then there’s the EU. Cameron’s decision to essentially make a manifesto pledge - a referendum on EU membership - a full two years before an election is a move designed to a) make the issue go away and b) de-tooth UKIP, who are threatening the Tory Right. The net effect of this is that Cameron looks like a radical centrist (yes - that is a paradox) while his party look like fusty old relics. This is why Cameron consistently polls better than his party, but fosters resentment within it.

During a recession it is inevitable that we should see a degree of discontent in a government’s ranks. What is potentially more dangerous is the lack of backlash from Cameron zealots. Many will remember Michael Heseltine’s mutiny against Margaret Thatcher in the late 80s. While the charge mobilised large swathes of the party against the leader, there was also a loyal and verbose inner circle who were keen to quell the uprising. You can’t see where that would come from if, say, Boris Johnson made a leadership challenge.

But will it come?

Not before 2015. Actually, I believe that at present Johnson is a help to Cameron as opposed to a hindrance. That he should be considered the main contender is emblematic of the dearth of real challengers in the Conservative Party. And David Cameron knows this - indeed the Prime Minister may well have picked his team based along those lines.