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The computer model that nailed the NFL's 2017 season has made its picks for Week 3

Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

  • The computer models are back making their picks for the 2018 NFL season.

  • In 2017, Microsoft's Cortana correctly picked 68% of the games overall and 75% of the games over the final ten weeks.

  • FiveThirtyEight's Elo also had a strong showing during the regular season, correctly picking 64% of the games.


Week 3 of the NFL season is here, and Microsoft's Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana won the regular season matchup last season, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.

Cortana is off to a strong start in 2018, going 10-5-1 in Week 2. Elo struggled, going 7-8-1.

Here are the picks for Week 3, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

Thursday

  • New York Jets at Cleveland (-3) — JETS (Elo 62%), BROWNS (Cortana 51%)

Sunday

  • New Orleans at Atlanta (-3) — FALCONS (Elo 66%, Cortana 63%)

  • San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5) — CHIEFS (Elo 77%, Cortana 60%)

  • Oakland at Miami (-3) — DOLPHINS (Elo 68%, Cortana 63%)

  • Buffalo at Minnesota (-16.5) — VIKINGS (Elo 78%, Cortana 79%)

  • Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-6.5) — EAGLES (Elo 83%, Cortana 66%)

  • Green Bay (-3) at Washington — REDSKINS (Elo 57%), PACKERS (Cortana 53%)

  • Cincinnati at Carolina (-3) — PANTHERS (Elo 63%), BENGALS (Cortana 51%)

  • Tennessee at Jacksonville (no line) — JAGUARS (Elo 71%, Cortana 67%)

  • Denver at Baltimore (-5.5) — RAVENS (Elo 68%, Cortana 63%)

  • New York Giants at Houston (-6) — TEXANS (Elo 59%, Cortana 61%)

  • Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7) — RAMS (Elo 64%, Cortana 72%)

  • Chicago (-5.5) at Arizona — CARDINALS (Elo 55%), BEARS (Cortana 66%)

  • Dallas at Seattle (-1.5) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 55%, Cortana 53%)

  • New England (-6.5) at Detroit — PATRIOTS (Elo 64%, Cortana 75%)

Monday

  • Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Tampa Bay — BUCS (Elo 54%), STEELERS (Cortana 57%)

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