Conservatives 'would have won clear majority under proposed boundary changes,' study finds

Proposed changes to constituency boundaries would have won the Conservative Party a clear majority in the 2017 General Election, new research shows.

The independent Boundary Commissions of England, Scotland and Wales published their proposals for constituency reform today.

An analysis, commissioned jointly by Professor Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, of the University of Plymouth, suggests the Conservatives would have enjoyed a majority of 16 (or effectively 25 if Sinn Fein were assumed not to take up their seats).

If approved, plans to cut the total number of MPs from 650 to 600 would take effect in 2022 - the scheduled date of the next British General Election. Revised recommendations for Northern Ireland are yet to come.

This seems unlikely, however, given Theresa May's current lack of a parliamentary majority and resistance from Opposition parties across both Houses.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's constituency, Islington North, would be scrapped under the plans, potentially pushing him into contest with parliamentary neighbours and high-ranking Labour politicians such as shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, of Islington South and Finsbury, and shadow home secretary Diane Abbot, of Hackney North and Stoke Newington.

The new plans propose a single Islington seat and a new Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington constituency.

Other high-ranking politicians, such as foreign secretary Boris Johnson and international development secretary Priti Patel, may have to battle for new seats if their constituencies are abolished.

Plans to lower the number of MPs, and reform constituencies as a result, were first put forward in 2011 in response to the earlier MPs' expenses scandal.

As well as reducing the number of seats, the review aims to make constituencies more equal in size, in terms of their total number of voters.

Sam Hartley, secretary to the Boundary Commission for England, urged the public to have their say on the revised map before it was submitted to Parliament for approval in September.

He said: "The new map of the country we publish today is, we think, close to the best set of Parliamentary constituencies we can achieve, based on the rules to which we work and evidence given to us by citizens."

The last set of boundary proposals were rejected by the Commons in 2013 after the Lib-Dems withdrew their support as punishment for a coalition dispute over House of Lords reform.

Cat Smith, Labour's shadow deputy leader of the House of Commons, said: "To lose 50 MPs at a time when we are repatriating powers from Brussels, as we leave the European Union, risks leaving the UK government struggling to keep up with the day-to-day requriements of legislation.

"They need to drop their unfair, undemocratic plans, as well as ensuring the review is based on the most up-to-date register, and that there is appropriate flexibility to take into account community ties and geography."