With three days to go before voters head to the ballot box, pollster Survation has put Boris Johnson’s party on 45%, with 31% of voters saying they will back Labour and 11% supporting the Liberal Democrats.
It means the Tories seem likely to win a majority – but the pollster’s chief executive warned that it is a “snapshot of opinion”.
It also found voters are “less undecided” than last week and that the Tories have increased their support among Leavers.
Their lead appears to be bolstered by keeping Brexit at the forefront of their campaigning.
76% of Leavers are now backing the Conservatives – up from 70% last week – and 91% of Brexit Party voters from May’s European elections now intending to vote Tory, Survation has found.
Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said the poll is “a snapshot of opinion and is difficult to account for what can be small changes within the margin of error”.
But, he added, a number of observations can be made, including the impact of Brexit on voting.
48% of voters believed Brexit has received the most media coverage this campaign, with 23% saying they had heard most about the NHS and 8% saying racism and anti-semitism in political parties had been the most prominent.
The Tories have slightly increased their support with Remainers, with 16% of decided voters who backed Remain now saying they would vote Conservative, up from 14% last week.
Survation also outlines what it describes as Labour’s “weakness” – 11% of the party’s 2017 voters will now vote Liberal Democrat, up from 4% last week.
The pollster also found that 48% of Labour voters would be prepared to vote tactically to keep out a party or candidate they did not like from winning.
Survation concludes: “The level of tactical voting and coordination required to accomplish the objectives of the Remain-minded majority in the UK would need to be significant to overcome the Conservative lead observed in today’s poll, should it be an accurate snapshot of public opinion.”
Among the other parties, the Brexit Party polled at 4%, the SNP at 3%, Greens at 2%, and Plaid Cymru at 1%.