Conservatives will win 90 seat majority at general election says spread better IG

Ian Silvera
Why has Theresa May called an early general election?

The Conservatives are on course to gain 40 seats and a majority of 90 in the House of Commons after the general election, spread betting firm IG said on Wednesday 19 April.

The business, using current prices on its election seats market, estimated Theresa May's party will secure 370 constituencies at the 8 June vote. Labour, meanwhile, could lose 52 seats and be diminished to 177 MPs.

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"This seven-week campaign is set to be unlike any other previous election," said Matt Brief, head of dealing, at IG. "There are big question marks over the turnout, which way Leave and Remain voters will cast their ballots, and what happens to the Ukip vote of 12.6% in 2015."

The firm also found that Ukip would win one seat at the general election, whilst the pro-EU Liberal Democrats are set to gain 25 seats and boost their numbers in the Commons 34. Elsewhere, IG said the SNP could return 50 MPs (-4).

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But the firm failed to estimate how many seats the Greens, who currently hold Brighton Pavilion, would win or lose. "Ukip were included in this release due to their large percentage of vote in the last election and current polling. We will probably look to Greens as more polling data about them comes out," an IG spokesperson told IBTimes UK.

The research seems to match up with the latest opinion polls. A snap survey from ICM for The Guardian, of 1,000 people on 18 April, put the Conservatives 21 points ahead of Labour (46% versus 25%).

Bookmakers Ladbrokes currently have the Tories as an 1/16 favourite to win the most seats at the election. Labour, in contrast, are at 10/1. The predictions and polls come just a day after May called for a general election. The prime minister currently has a working majority of 17 MPs in the Commons.

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