Cop29 will expose net zero hard truths

Delegates arrive for the UN Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku
Delegates arrive for the UN Climate Change Conference COP29 in Baku

For the second year running, the annual UN climate-change conference is taking place in an oil-rich nation. Twelve months ago, it was in the UAE. This week, thousands of delegates will begin 11 days of talks in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, a country that produces about 33 million tons of oil and 35 billion cubic metres of gas annually.

These venues are apparently intended to show that even petro-economies have bought fully into the pressing need to reduce global CO2 emissions and endorse the science behind it. But the Azeris are no more convinced of this than the Arab hosts of Cop28, whose president last year said a phase-out of fossil fuels would not allow sustainable development “unless you want to take the world back into caves”.

This is the point that the Labour Government is unable to acknowledge. A commitment to a low-carbon future cannot involve the precipitate eradication of fossil fuels in a world that still relies heavily upon them. Yet under the zealous direction of Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, Britain seeks to “lead the world” in achieving a decarbonised electricity grid in just over five years from now.

Sir Keir Starmer will attend the meeting in Baku along with an estimated 80,000 participants. But absentees include US President Joe Biden, China’s leader Xi Jinping and India’s Nahrendra Modi, the world’s three biggest CO2 emitters. France’s President Emmanuel Macron will also be absent, as will Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose coalition government has just collapsed in a row over the speed of the country’s move towards net zero.

Casting a shadow over the proceedings is the American president-elect Donald Trump, who says he will abandon the 2015 Paris Agreement setting out a net-zero timetable.

On the eve of the summit, Mr Miliband said the UK must ramp up efforts to expand renewable energy to foster national security in an increasingly uncertain world. The Government is also expected to contribute to a £1 trillion fund for poorer countries, even though China and the Gulf states are exempt from paying.

Yet given the indifference being shown by the leaders of other countries, the UK is climbing out onto a very dangerous limb. To secure the 2030 target for decarbonisation, the country will need to build twice as many pylons and cables in the next five years as we have built in the past 10.

Fine words uttered at an overblown junket in an oil-rich nation 2,500 miles away will not make that any more feasible than it is now.