Corbyn or Brexit could swing it in key seat divided by wealth

When the new US ambassador arrives in London shortly, he will move into one of the most opulent neighbourhoods on the planet.

A stone’s throw from his Winfield House residence in Regent’s Park, oil wealth and other fortunes ooze from mansions in this corner of Westminster North. Yet the ambassador, widely expected to be Woody Johnson, the Republican fundraiser who owns the New York Jets NFL team, may be surprised to learn the area has for years been represented by a Labour MP.

Why? Well, the answer lies partly in the juxtaposition of huge wealth and deprivation, which makes Westminster North such a marginal seat.

“You have got the richest people in the country, probably, living alongside some of our poorest,” says Councillor Lindsey Hall, the Conservative challenger. It is her second attempt to unseat Labour’s Karen Buck, who has been the area’s MP for two decades. But unlike many rematches, this one does not look like turning nasty.

Mrs Hall, a former TV presenter in her late fifties, tells of her “great respect” for Ms Buck, before unleashing a volley at the person who might swing it for the Tories.

“She has been a very good constituency MP, unfortunately she has got Jeremy Corbyn to sell on the doorstep,” she says. “I know that she is running her campaign and trying to gloss over him as if he does not exist... it all comes back to the economy and Jeremy Corbyn’s sums simply don’t add up.”

Ms Buck, 58, admits that the Labour leader is driving some people away, but says he is also motivating others, including first-time voters, to go to the polls — or at least they say they will.

She secured a 1,977 majority two years ago and her Tory rival will be in sight of victory if she can hoover up most of the 1,489 votes won then by Ukip, which is not standing this time.

Ms Buck, a former aviation minister, expects a “very, very tight” result, but adds: “It feels better than 2015 on the doorstep. I can’t tell you why that is, but it just feels better. We have lost some votes but gained others, particularly around the Remain issue, including from former Conservative voters.”

Other concerns on the doorstep include “housing, housing, housing”, the NHS and tuition fees, she said.

If Ms Buck is returned to Parliament, she believes it could also be down to the work that she, her team and councillors put in for the community “46 weeks a year” on estates including the Mozart, Brunel and Lisson Green, and for other neighbourhoods in the constituency.

When she meets Ms Buck on the Brunel estate, company secretary Aida Xhameni, 41, says she cannot see Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister but will still vote Labour. “I’m very happy with Karen and her work and how she keeps me up to date,” she adds.

At a nearby flat, Labour supporter Gwyn Gilmour, 75, will make sure she votes, partly because of Brexit. “It’s the most depressing thing that has happened in my lifetime apart from personal things,” says the office manager.

Mother-of-two Fatima Najim, 33, is planning to vote for the first time and for Labour. “Supporting the NHS is the most important thing,” she said.

The two main challengers for the seat are taking their campaigns to all areas. “You could not win if you did not canvass everywhere,” says Ms Buck, adding that there are Corbyn donors in affluent areas such as St John’s Wood.

If Mrs Hall is to win, she believes key support will come from the aspirational, the “just about managing” and “white working-class votes perhaps”. She adds: “Those fervent Brexiteers on our estate, they have no home with the Left on this issue,” although she accepts that about two thirds of local votes were for Remain last June. Other matters raised include cycle superhighway 11 and school standards.

Mrs Hall believes she is now “a well qualified enough candidate in my own right now to win the trust of people here after 10 years at City Hall”, and having fought rises in business rates.

In Ordnance Hill, in St John’s Wood, Gabrielle Joseph, 36, a mother of four and part-time private equity fundraiser, tells Mrs Hall there is “zero” chance she will vote for Mr Corbyn, though previously she supported Labour.

“It’s a difficult job being Prime Minister and we need somebody who is competent,” she says, carrying her 18-month-old twins Hannah and Clara.

In nearby The Marlowes, accountant Julie Brierley, 48, was a strong Remainer but will vote Conservative even though she has reservations about Theresa May’s “citizens of nowhere” party conference speech. “The ship has sailed and we have to get on with it,” she says.

Near neighbour Bernard Gold, 85, is a Tory stalwart who ran a travel company for the film industry. He is dismissive of Mr Corbyn’s chances, saying: “In another time, another place, another era, he might have been what people wanted.”

In such a divided seat, which includes the top-end of Baker Street, even Sherlock Holmes would struggle to predict who will win.