Coronavirus: More than 4,000 deaths a day unless there is second lockdown, scientists warn

More than 4,000 people could be dying from coronavirus every day unless a new lockdown is imposed, scientists have warned Boris Johnson.

Hospitalisations would not peak until the middle of December, with deaths continuing to rise until at the end of the year, says the BBC which has seen the document.

A separate paper circulating in government says the NHS would be unable to accept any more patients by Christmas – even if the Nightingale hospitals are used and non-urgent procedures cancelled.

It warns “the window to act is now for the majority of the country” and that, if no action is taken to control surging Covid infections, other forms of emergency care may have to be rationed.

The documents, from the SPI-M group of scientists, underline why the prime minister is now expected to impose a month-long lockdown from as early as next Wednesday, in another breathtaking U-turn.

They make different projections of the likely course of the virus – but all predict far more infections and deaths than during the spring, when deaths reached more than a thousand a day.

The prime minister is set to hold a press conference on Monday to announce the new restrictions, possibly closing everything except essential shops and nurseries, schools and universities.

No final decision has been made and tougher regional measures, known as Tier 4, are still being considered, but ministers are understood to favour a national policy.

Mr Johnson met Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, and Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, on Friday to discuss the “alarming” new data.

A new lockdown will heap huge fresh criticism on Mr Johnson for failing to adopt a short “circuit break” this month – when it was recommended by his scientists and backed by Keir Starmer.

Instead, he branded the idea “the height of absurdity”, but is now faced with having to impose a much longer shutdown, in the run-up to Christmas.

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