Could UKIP leader Paul Nuttall win Boston, the most pro-Brexit part of the country?

Ashley Kirk
UKIP's Paul Nuttall will struggle to win Boston from the Tories - AFP

Paul Nuttall has announced that he will stand in the constituency of Boston and Skegness in the upcoming General Election.

In theory, it should be the perfect target for UKIP. 

It is the Brexit capital of the UK, with the strongest vote for leaving the European Union in the whole country.

In the south Lincolnshire local authority of Boston, 75.6 per cent of people backed Brexit.

Boston EU referendum result

The population of Boston increased by 15.9 per cent between 2001 and 2011, according to the last census - twice the national rate.

The largest increase in population was among people in their 20s - showing a large increase in the working population.

This has led to tensions in the community, with jobs being seen to be under pressure. 17 per cent of people in Boston are process plant and machine operatives, while a further 13 per cent are skilled tradespeople.

Such frustration should be perfect for UKIP, which hopes to capitalise on economic stagnation, anti-immigrant and anti-establishment feeling to capture votes for a new direction.

But this doesn't mean things will be easy for Nuttall

In 2015, the Conservative Party won in the Boston and Skegness constituency with a majority of 10 per cent - 4,336 votes - over UKIP.

The Labour Party came in third place, claiming 16.5 per cent of the vote. 

Boston 2015 General Election results

Considering the fact that Tory support is increasing - with the latest polling showing that two thirds of 2015 UKIP supporters will switch to Theresa May's party in the upcoming General Election - it's hard to see how Nuttall could take the constituency.

The most likely outcome in this Tory-held, Brexit-backing constituency is that the Conservatives will hold the constituency with a greater majority.

And Nuttall doesn't have a good track record.

Earlier this year, he stood as UKIP's candidate in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.

Stoke Central by-election results

This was seen as another Brexit stronghold - and this time it was a Labour seat, which would've been seen as an easier target owing to Jeremy Corbyn's dire position in the polls.

But Nuttall failed in this by-election. The party leader increased UKIP's vote share by just 2.1 points, and fell short of Labour's vote share by 12.4 points. 

All the polling suggests that the same would happen in his attempt to take Boston and Skegness. 

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