Advertisement

COVID-19: Will London go into Tier 3 before Christmas?

As COVID-19 cases in London rise, people in the capital have been warned they could be moved into Tier 3 before Christmas.

Following a meeting of London MPs with health minister Helen Whately on Thursday, one MP told Sky News: "It was a very clear preparation for Tier 3. I think the decision is pretty much made."

Mayor Sadiq Khan earlier warned: "If we don't all work together now, we may face tougher restrictions across the capital."

London was placed in Tier 2 when England came out of its second national lockdown on 2 December, but the government will review each area's allocation on 16 December, giving Londoners just a week to get numbers down.

Current infection rates are now above the national average and have been rising since mid-November, when England was in the middle of its second lockdown.

The number of infections in London's older generation is slightly higher than England's average, with 142 people aged over 60 reported as testing positive during the first week of December.

But there are large differences among London's 32 boroughs.

Several different criteria are being used to determine which areas are in which tier: case rates in all age groups, case rates in the over 60s, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, positivity rate (percentage of tests which come back positive), and the pressure on the NHS.

The latest data shows the number of hospital admissions across London are considerably lower than the spring peak.

They are also similar to those recorded in other regions around England that have not been hit as hard as London by COVID-19.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said any increase of over 25% compared with the peak is a cause for concern.

With such a variety of situations across London, several Conservative MPs had called for boroughs to be looked at individually when assigning tiers.

But virologist Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor at the University of Leeds' school of medicine, said that would not help to reduce cases.

"In London, you've got public transport linking everywhere, you can walk around the corner and be in a different borough and people commute between many boroughs," he said.

"The problem is none of the restrictions prevent people from moving around, so cases are always going to rise.

"We also don't have track and trace working properly, so having the tiers split by borough would make it very difficult to trace infections."

If London goes into Tier 3, it is understood the decision will be made on 16 December, details will be published the next day and it will come into force on 19 December.