Coronavirus pandemic may have started in October, says UK-French study

The Covid-19 pandemic may have started as early as October, according to a new joint study of its genetic make-up by researchers at University College London and the University of Reunion Island.

The pathogen wreaking havoc on the world, known scientifically as SARS-CoV-2, is thought to have made the jump from its initial host to humans at some point between October 6 and December 11.

The findings – based on analysis of more than 7,000 genome sequence assemblies collected from around the world since January – will be published in a forthcoming edition of scientific journal Infection Genetics and Evolution.

Researchers studied the evolution of the mutations since they jumped to humans in order to work back their molecular clocks to a common starting point.

Separately, Chinese government information, seen previously by the South China Morning Post, suggests one of the first patients to emerge was a 55-year-old resident of Hubei province on November 17. "Patient zero" has not yet been confirmed.

The theory the virus was circulating earlier than had been thought came after a French athlete who fell ill after competing in Wuhan in October said she had been told by doctors it was likely that she had caught Covid-19.

The claim by Olympic silver-winning pentathlete Elodie Clouvel bolstered theories that coronavirus may have been carried around the world by people who had taken part in an international competition in the Chinese city.

Ms Clouvel, 31, said that she and her 27-year-old boyfriend Valentin Belaud, also a pentathlete, had fallen ill after the Military World Games, held in Wuhan between October 18 and 27 and featuring 9,308 athletes from 109 countries.

Other French team members have since spoken to the French press, mainly on condition of anonymity, to say they too had become sick.

"We all fell ill with the same symptoms," Ms Clouvel, a military police officer, told RTL radio. "We have recently had a contact with the military doctor, who said to us: 'I think you had [it] because there were a lot of people who were ill afterwards'."

The French army denies knowledge of anyone contracting the disease during the games.

This week, French doctors informed a 43-year old man that a "mystery" disease he contracted on December 27, which left him requiring oxygen, was Covid-19 after testing a frozen swab. Until then, the first confirmed case in France was on January 24.

The discovery of France's potential "patient zero" prompted the World Health Organisation to urge other countries to investigate any other early suspicious cases.