Inflation warning over train fare ticking time bomb

Train fare price increases could land a devastating blow on passengers on lower incomes if the government fails to take action, transport campaigners have warned.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday said inflation has hit its highest levels in 40 years as Brits struggle with rising the cost of living.

The consumer price index (CPI), the most commonly cited form of inflation, hit 9% in the 12 months to April 2022.

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However, it is a different measure of inflation - the retail price index (RPI) - that is used by the government to set prices in areas like rail fares and student loans. In the same figures, the ONS revealed that RPI had now hit a staggering 11.1%.

Ordinarily, rail fares increase each January in line with the RPI from the previous July, plus 1%.

That would mean, if inflation stays at its current rate, passengers could face a 12.1% increase in their rail fares next year.

And the figure could be even higher, with experts predicting inflation will continue to creep up in the coming months.

In 2021, the government delayed hiking rail fares from January 2022 to 1 March 2022 to give customers more time to buy tickets at lower prices amid the pandemic.

The government also capped train fare rises at 3.8% despite RPI from the previous July hitting 7.1%. However, fare hikes were still the highest in nine years.

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Labour condemned the government allowing the price rise to go ahead, describing it as a "brutal" and a "nightmare" for people struggling with the cost of living. The government said the capped rise "strikes a fair balance" and also allows investment.

Amid spiralling inflation, campaigners are calling on the government to intervene before price hikes linked to RPI "hit passengers like a ton of bricks" next year.

“A fare rise linked to RPI would be both cruel and counter-productive," said Norman Baker of Campaign for Better Transport.

"The last thing we want is to force everyone but the rich off the railway. If we are to tackle climate change, traffic jams and air pollution we need a thriving rail network for everyone.”

They added: "In the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and a climate crisis, the government should scrap RPI-linked fare rises and make green train travel affordable.”

When asked whether train fares will increase in January or March, and whether they will increase by RPI + 1%, a spokesperson for the Department for Transport said: "We do not comment on speculation, and no decision has been made on national rail fares."

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The new RPI figures come as pressure grows on Rishi Sunak to provide more financial help to Brits struggling with the cost-of-living crisis.

The Resolution Foundation has warned that if the government do not provide more financial assistance to those on the lowest incomes 1.3m more people in the UK will fall into absolute poverty in 2022/23.

In March, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said Brits are facing the biggest drop in living standards since records began.

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