What is the current state of the migration crisis in Europe?

More than three years after Europe’s biggest influx of migrants and refugees since the second world war, tensions between EU member states over how to handle irregular immigration from outside the bloc – mainly from the Middle East and Africa – remain high.

What is the scale of migration?

Numbers are sharply down from their 2015-16 peak because of a 2016 EU deal with Turkey, new border fences in the Balkans, and a 2017 bilateral arrangement between Italy and Libya.

The UNHCR says Spain has welcomed 56,200 irregular migrants so far this year, Greece 28,700 and Italy 22,500.

But the underlying factors that have led to more than 1.8 million migrants coming to Europe since 2014 have not gone away; most observers believe it is only a matter of time before the number of arrivals picks up again.

Why is it a problem?

Everyone agrees Europe needs to urgently overhaul its asylum and immigration rules. At present Spain, Italy and Greece take most of the strain owing to their geographical position on the Mediterranean Sea and the fact that, under EU law, asylum seekers must lodge their applications in the first EU country they enter.

However, no one can agree on what to do: some countries want tougher external border controls, others fairer distribution of new arrivals. Any solution will have to balance the concerns of “frontline” southern states with those of wealthier northern “destination” states, while dealing with the refusal of hardline central and eastern ones (such as Hungary and Poland) to accept any migrants at all.

What is the wider political context?

With anti-immigration sentiment on the rise across the continent, the presence in government of the far-right League party of Matteo Salvini, which campaigned on a pledge to send 500,000 irregular migrants home, is making itself felt. The similarly rightwing, populist Freedom party is sharing power in Austria.

In Germany – which welcomed more than 1 million migrants in 2015 under Angela Merkel’s open-door policy – the rightwing Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party has kept immigration at the top of the political agenda, making further electoral gains and prompting the chancellor to announce she will not stand again. Polling shows immigration and terrorism remain EU citizens’ top concerns.

Where do things stand?

Fewer people are making the journey across the Mediterranean, but the proportion of those losing their lives while trying has risen sharply: so far in 2018, more than 21,000 people have made the crossing, and more than 1,250 have died.

Amid a string of high-profile cases of migrant rescue boats left drifting at sea, NGO vessels have all but disappeared from the main migration routes to Italy following Salvini’s announcement after taking office this summer that he was closing Italian ports to non-Italian rescue vessels.

European leaders papered over their divisions at a crunch summer summit but have so far dodged any formal agreement on refugee quotas, with central states rejecting any form of mandatory action.

What will happen now?

Merkel is on record as saying the future of the European Union hinges on whether it can find answers to the “vital questions” posed by migration, but although leaders agree on the need to ease the burden on Italy and Greece, details are scarce.

Efforts will be shared, but only voluntarily. Members are to take in rescued migrants and establish centres to assess asylum claims on their soil, and the bloc will explore regional processing platforms in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Niger and Tunisia.

But so far none of these countries have agreed to help, while a couple have ruled themselves out. Meanwhile Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, is leading a call among some states for a “strong border” to stop an “invasion”. Nothing is yet settled.