The Dangers Of Russian Intervention In Syria

It is a nightmare scenario straight out of a Tom Clancy novel. A Russian jet strays into Turkish airspace, at the same time as unidentified - possibly Syrian - jets lock radar onto Turkish F16s.

The Turkish military is forced to respond, downing the Russian aircraft.

Russia escalates by attacking other Turkish targets, and NATO member nations - including the US - are drawn into defend their ally.

We may have been close to that over the past few days.

The opening stages in that scenario happened, the escalation was fortunately avoided.

At NATO they are spitting feathers. The alliance's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg sounded indignant when he dismissed the Russian claim it was all a mistake .

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan spelled out the risks Russia is running if it continues like this, calling the incursion unacceptable.

"Russia, if it wishes to lose a friend like Turkey with whom they had a lot of co-operation, they will lose a lot, they must know that," he said.

Russia risks losing a lot of friends. Everyone on the other side of the vicious proxy war that's torn Syria apart for four years now.

Whatever it says, it is widely regarded as having entered the conflict on the side of the Shia/Assad/Iranian axis. That pits it against Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and potentially Egypt.

But it seems prepared to weather the diplomatic fallout, if that is the cost of keeping its allies in power in Damascus and restoring Russia's preeminence as a key broker in the future of Syria.

But events swing like a pendulum in the Middle East.

Russia's intervention was itself a response to the success of the Army of Conquest, a loose collection of Islamist groups which took control of the entire province of Idlib in concert with the Free Syria Army, threatening Bashar al Assad's hold on Latakia province to the west.

The US is now mooting another intervention - this time against Islamic State in Raqqa, encouraging Kurds to the north to attack on the ground with the support of thousands of Arab fighters and supported in the air with coalition airstrikes.

With its IS rivals weakened to the east, the Army of Conquest may be emboldened to press further its advantage against Assad forces to the west. That could be a worry to Russia which has based its aircraft in Latakia.

Those are the more predictable events. War also unfolds in ways that can't be predicted and controlled.

Despite the best efforts of Moscow and Washington to deconflict their air forces, there is always the danger of coalition airpower inadvertently clashing with Russia's or Syria's as Turkey has discovered in the last few days.