Deaths below average in new sign that Covid crisis is coming to an end

Deaths are below average for this time of year, figures show, in the latest sign that the pandemic is coming to an end.

New figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that deaths in England and Wales were 7.8 per cent below the five-year average for the week ending Jan 7.

The fall remains even though the ONS has removed 2020 from its five-year average figure because the first year of the pandemic was so extreme.

When 2021 was also removed, there were just 87 more deaths than expected, which experts said was "nothing unusual", arguing that the 922 Covid deaths reported that week were being offset by fewer deaths from traditional winter killers such as flu.

The ONS figures also show that the virus was not the primary cause of death in nearly a quarter of the registered Covid deaths.

Prof Andrew Hayward, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said he expected the virus to settle into a seasonal pattern that will cause "much less disruption".

"We may still get quite big winters of infection but not the sort of level where we can justify wholesale societal closedown," Prof Hayward told Times Radio. "So I think it is genuinely an optimistic picture."

For the UK as a whole, deaths were down 8.3 per cent, with 1,255 fewer people dying than would normally be expected for the first week of January.

Commenting on social media, Stuart Macdonald, of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, said: "Nothing especially unusual about death numbers this week, despite over 900 deaths with Covid. It is likely that there were fewer deaths from typical winter killers (like flu), offsetting the Covid deaths."

On Monday, Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, said he was cautiously optimistic that Covid restrictions could be "substantially reduced" next week.

The ONS said it often sees high death registrations in the first two weeks of January as register offices deal with a backlog.

Deaths involving Covid have remained low throughout the latest wave of cases, with the vaccine rollout playing a major role.

Dr David Nabarro, the World Health Organisation's special envoy on Covid, told BBC Breakfast the situation in the UK "gives us grounds for hope" but continued to urge caution.

"The goal that we're all aiming for is a situation where this virus is present, but life is organised so that it is not disrupted," he said. "We also need to be humble – this virus is continuing to evolve and we're never quite sure that we know exactly where it's going to go next."