Disarmed, forced into ‘hibernation’ or the rise of a new insurgency: Hamas faces uncertain future

Hamas fighters celebrate as news spreads of the ceasefire deal
Hamas fighters celebrate as news spreads of the ceasefire deal - BASHAR TALEB/AFP

As crowds of Palestinians on Wednesday night cheered in Gaza’s shattered streets at the arrival of a long-awaited ceasefire deal, a car carrying veiled militants joined the celebrations.

A widely-shared video, first published by a Palestinian journalist, showed rifle-wielding men said to be from Hamas’s military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, parade along with the jubilant throng.

The brazen presence of Hamas fighters in Khan Younis despite months of determined Israeli military attempts to wipe them out will have surprised few.

More than 15 months after Israel vowed to effectively destroy the militant organisation for storming into southern Israel, killing around 1,200 and taking 250 hostages, the group has been badly mauled but is still alive.

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The lack of an alternative administration in Gaza means it has been left severely weakened, but still standing.

Deciding what to do with its remnants and how to replace its grip on power in Gaza are among many thorny issues still to be dealt with in a ceasefire process where the future has been left perhaps deliberately unclear.

With negotiators understandably keen to focus on areas where they can make quick progress, such as hostage and prisoner releases, these more difficult quandaries have been pushed back to later rounds.

Israel from the start of the war vowed to ensure Hamas could never again play a role in governing the Gaza Strip. To that end, it has waged an all-out air and ground assault against Hamas and its fighters, tunnels and infrastructure, which has devastated the territory and killed more than 36,000 people according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Israeli soldiers secure a tunnel reportedly used by Hamas in northern Gaza
Israeli soldiers secure a tunnel reportedly used by Hamas in northern Gaza - Noam Galai/Getty Images Europe

A relentless game of whack-a-mole has dealt Hamas heavy blows, including the deaths of Yahya Sinwar, its leader, and military commanders Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa. Israel’s battering of Hezbollah and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime have also robbed Hamas of key regional support.

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Yet while pummelled and diminished, the group has not been snuffed out. Fighters have melted away, or gone to ground, in the face of Israeli attacks, only to regroup and pop up again later. Recruitment has continued.

Earlier this week, Antony Blinken, the United States Secretary of State, underlined its resilience, saying it had largely managed to replace its losses.

He said: “We have long made the point to the Israeli government that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone – that without a clear alternative, a post-conflict plan and a credible political horizon for the Palestinians, Hamas, or something just as abhorrent and dangerous, will grow back.

“That’s exactly what’s happened in northern Gaza since October 7. Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void.

“Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”

Israeli intelligence assessments before the war estimated the group had around 25,000 fighters. If its losses have been largely replaced, then it remains a considerable size, despite the Israeli onslaught.

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Hamas’s continuing influence remains a political reality which must be dealt with in any post-war solution, analysts say.

Working out what happens to those fighters, for example, if they can be disarmed and demobilised and who will do it, must all be tackled as part of any settlement.

Mr Blinken has made it clear he believes the only viable alternative to Hamas would be the Palestinian Authority, which currently has control in the West Bank.

Regional players like Egypt and Qatar could step in to prop up the authority and potentially even provide peacekeepers to oversee the demobilisation of fighters.

Disarming and dismantling Hamas’s military will not be easy, even with the involvement of Arab states, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) admitted last month.

The council suggested there may be scope “to at least force Qassam fighters into ‘hibernation’ mode in Gaza whereby they would largely disappear from public view and not challenge Palestinian Authority security forces”.

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Some Hamas officials have also appeared open to merging their militants with a Palestinian national security force. Others have hinted they could agree to limit their military capabilities.

Hamas militants
Disarming and dismantling Hamas’s military will not be easy - MAHMUD HAMS/AFP

Yet it is not clear the authority is up to the job, or that Hamas and Gazans will play ball.

Led by the ageing Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority is unpopular even in its West Bank home turf, where it is seen as incompetent, bloated and corrupt.

“If Hamas and the Palestinian people in Gaza reject a security force and governing authority, then it could lead to a protracted insurgency in Gaza,” warns Alex Plitsas of the Atlantic Council’s counterterrorism project.

Hugh Lovatt, of the ECFR said: “Given the lack of trust between all sides, Gaza will likely require an international peacekeeping force to monitor the implementation of a ceasefire deal, the possible demobilisation of Hamas, and to support de-confliction efforts.

“Arab states have indicated they could back this as long as it comes with a viable political track towards Palestinian self-determination.”

Pressure from Donald Trump may have got the first stage of a ceasefire deal over the line after months of negotiations, but that may prove to be only the easy part. The future of Hamas and what replaces them will be much more difficult.

“Despite the talk about the sticking points in the negotiations, the real sticking point underlying everything still has not been resolved: Who will control postwar Gaza?” says Thomas Warrick, a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy in the US Department of Homeland Security.

“Hamas wants to ensure it has the ability to rebuild and re-arm, and Israel is equally determined to prevent this.

“The agreement calls for postwar arrangements to be discussed during phase two, but make no mistake, no one is ready for what this will really require.”