Dolphins vs Saints betting preview

Frank Schwab gets you set for the final game on the Week 16 schedule as the Miami Dolphins take on the New Orleans Saints. Frank has a lean on the spread, game total as well as a couple of player props for your consideration.

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Video transcript

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FRANK SCHWAB: Welcome to Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It is December 27, 2021. I'm your Monday Night Football betting guide, Frank Schwab, here to preview Dolphins versus Saints. First, though, let's go through the bad beats. Not too much on Sunday, so we're gonna go back a week. Hey, remember, last week, when I told you to take the Vikings? I hope you did that. If you did have the Bears +7, you were really kind of let down at the end. The Bears score on the final play of the game, and you're thinking, wow, I'm gonna get a lucky push on my +7. You probably forgot that, a few years ago, the NFL ditched the rule where you had to kick an extra point even if it didn't matter, so the game just ended then, a 17-9 game, so ugly, even uglier for Bears bettors who had +7, who had a million chances to at least push in that game, and then, at the end, you finally get the touchdown, and they don't even kick the extra point. So Vikings bettors very happy, Bears bettors not so much. Thankfully, the rest of the week was not so bad, other than losing a ton of bowl games, and a ton of NFL games being affected by COVID, and that leads us right into Monday Night Football.

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Look, I wish I had a better story for you here, but this game, you have to talk about COVID-and who's in the protocols, obviously, because the New Orleans Saints got hit very, very hard, especially at the quarterback position. Taysom Hill is out. Trevor Siemian is out. And if you're not a Notre Dame fan, you might not know who Ian Book is, but you're gonna be seeing a lot of him on Monday night, as he leads the Saints, now as 3-point underdogs, against the Miami Dolphins in a game that's huge for both teams in the playoff picture. The Saints were 3-point favorites in this game, but that line obviously flipped with the quarterback issues. The Saints offense, very, very limited, and that's why I'm gonna go with the Dolphins here.

Do I really trust the Dolphins? Not really. The Dolphins have put together a nice winning streak, six in a row. A lot of that is against really bad teams, though. This is the toughest team they're gonna face in that stretch, aside from maybe the Baltimore Ravens in the middle of their winning streak. But this really isn't a Saints team that can compete with them, especially offensively. I think their defense can keep them in the game, and I think I'd take the under of 37, just because I think this is gonna be an ugly, grinded-out game, but I just can't trust the Saints, with a rookie quarterback who we've never seen before, covering even a 3-point at home as underdogs. So I'll take the Dolphins here. I don't think it's gonna be pretty. I wish we had a better Monday Night Football game. But like a lot of games in the NFL schedule, everything is being affected by guys who are on the COVID-reserve list. This one is no different.

Let's look at a couple of props really quick for what's gonna be an ugly game, but I am gonna go over my first prop, and that's Alvin Kamara over 84.5 rushing and receiving yards combined. Look, the Saints' game plan has to be obvious here. I know Mark Ingram has cut into Kamara's touches a little bit, but we saw a few weeks ago against the Jets, when they need to load up Kamara, they will, and I assume Sean Payton says, hey, I've got one weapon in this game, Alvin Kamara. I'm gonna use him as much as possible. It's a little bit of a square play, taking the over on Alvin Kamara, right? But I still think he can get over that 84.5. The offense isn't gonna move the ball much, but whatever the offense does move, it's gonna be because of Alvin Kamara in this game. I could see him getting over 100 yards total in this game. I don't know if it's gonna result in a lot of points, but I think Alvin Kamara is gonna be a big factor.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins, I don't expect them to light up the scoreboard by any means. Tua Tagovailoa, I'm gonna take him under 236.5 passing yards. I think the Saints' defense is gonna really play hard. They know they're gonna need to carry the offense in this game, and I think they can shut down Tua. Tua is not a bad player. I'm not a hater of him by any means, but I don't think he's gonna be passing the ball up and down the field in this game like you'd like. Another correlated play with that, DeVante Parker under 47.5 receiving yards. This one's kind of easy to me. I think Parker is gonna see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, one of the true shutdown corners in the NFL. I think this is gonna be, again, an ugly offensive game, not a lot of yards, not a lot of points, and I think DeVante Parker, even though he has been targeted a lot by Tua since he came back from the injury list, I think Parker is gonna have a quiet day, getting a really, really tough cornerback matchup.

So let's recap this thing. I'm gonna take the Dolphins -3. I don't love the Dolphins in the spot. It's more of a fade of the Saints, because I don't think their offense is gonna do much. I'll take the under 37 in what's gonna be a pretty ugly game. And then some props for you. Alvin Kamara over 84.5 rushing and receiving yards, because I think he's gonna be the Saints' entire offense here and they're gonna ride him hard. Then Tua Tagovailoa under 236.5 passing yards and DeVante Parker under 47.5 receiving yards. Boy, this is just not gonna be a fun matchup, but still an interesting one, still a big one for the playoff picture.

You can follow me over on Twitter at @YahooSchwab, and follow all of our content over at Yahoo Sportsbook. Create a BetMGM account and place your first bet risk-free, up to $1,000. If your bet loses, you get your bet amount, up to $1,000 added back to your account in free bets. You must be 21 or older in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, or Wyoming only. Terms apply. Go to BetMGM.com/Yahoo to get started, or use the promo code "Yahoo" when making your first deposit. Pam Maldonado will be back to host the next episode of Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. Until then, goodbye and good luck.