What Trump’s election victory means for climate change
As the climate crisis escalates at a rapid pace, here’s what you need to know about the president-elect's climate policies.
After Donald's Trump remarkable US election victory, attention now turns to how he will govern on his return to the White House.
Trump's first stint in the Oval Office saw him withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, hand over thousands of acres of public land for mining and fossil fuel extraction and let firms off the hook for fines related to breaking environmental projection rules to the tune of more than $50m.
While Joe Biden carried on some of predecessor's policies, including on drilling permits, he took steps on issues such as protecting endangered species and pushing for tougher regulation in a host of sectors.
While Kamala Harris had been expected to continue this, it is now expected Trump will begin to unpick green legislation and increase investment in fossil fuels.
As the climate crisis continues to escalate, here’s what you need to know about Trump's environmental policies.
What are Trump's key policies on climate and the environment?
Trump's comments on the campaign trail and in the 2024 Republican Platform - the US equivalent of a British political party manifesto - covered a swathe of topics, from abortion to immigration and international relations.
On the environment and related issues, the world can expect to see action on:
Energy policy
The Republican Platform promised to "DRILL, BABY, DRILL" in its quest to make the US at least "Energy Independent", if not the world's dominant producer.
As well as pulling out of the Paris climate accords for a second time, the president-elect has also said he would allow drilling for oil and gas on federal land and encourage the building of new pipelines.
Trade tariffs
Trump has previously suggested adding tariffs of 10% or more on products entering the US in a bid to cut its trade deficit.
While this could boost some flagging sectors of the US economy, it could also cut off the flow of goods and components needed for country's energy transition.
Environmental regulations
While promising to ensure clean air and water for Americans, Trump has also said he will cut red tape and bureaucracy for corporations.
Several measures introduced by Joe Biden are understood to be in his crosshairs and could be repealed.
What does the wider Republican Party think about environment policy?
Sections of the Republican party have been sceptical about climate change since the early 1990s.
“Since then, it’s just become more intense,” Dr Jared Finnegan, the director for University College London’s climate change policy and politics MSc, told Yahoo News. “They’ve always been a kind of anti-climate party.”
Discourse around the climate is considered to be an “extremely divisive issue” in the US. “It’s very polarising,” he added.
The Republican manifesto doesn’t mention anything to do with the environment – apart from a commitment to making the US the "Number One Producer of Oil and Natural Gas in the World".
“Increasing domestic energy means increasing fossil fuels. That means finding ways, subsidies and cutting regulations to increase oil and gas production in the US,” Dr Finnegan said.
Katie Pruszynski, a Trump specialist and PhD candidate at the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Sheffield, echoed this.
“The Republican party advocates for increasing domestic oil, gas and coal production – all of those things that we've been trying for many decades now to wean ourselves off,” she told Yahoo News.
One of the driving factors behind this decision, Finnegan thinks, is down to Republican party donors.
“The Republican party takes a huge amount of contributions from oil and gas and from polluting industries. Trump? I don't know if he has an ideology,” he said.
How will Trump grapple with Biden's legacy?
Unveiling a series of ambitious climate packages has been a point of pride for incumbent president Biden.
Part of this climate and energy legacy was the landmark $391bn (£301bn) Inflation Reduction Act, part of which invested in clean domestic energy production, creating the likes of battery factories for electric vehicle manufacturers in industrial towns.
However, Trump has warned these measures would be the first to go, with share prices for wind and solar firms slumping in the wake of his election victory.
“The party's platform is cutting and getting rid of the climate change policies that Biden has put in place. Trump himself goes even further,” Finnegan said.
“If Trump decides to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act in its entirety, that's getting rid of basically almost everything the US does when it comes to climate change.”
While repealing the legislation wholesale could be too big a challenge for the incoming president, it is more likely the act will be weakened and chipped away at over time.
And while Trump's election victory has alarmed many climate campaigners, they expect the switch to a 'low carbon' economy to continue, as leaders fear losing out to rivals such as China.
Even among Trump’s usual voter base the legislation has proved popular with voters, according to Andy Garraway, former UK cabinet office advisor to former energy secretary Alok Sharma and head of climate policy at sustainability intelligence company Risilience.
“One of the really intelligent things that Biden managed to do as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, was really focus climate job growth in industrial districts – districts who are most likely to see jobs being lost from a green transition,” Garraway told Yahoo News.
Because of this, revoking it could mean that Trump has a fight on his hands.
“The reason behind why those jobs have been created is ignored. They don't really care that it's a climate bill that's provided this funding,” Garraway said.
Could Trump withdraw from the Paris climate agreement (again)?
Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement during his first term in office sent shockwaves around the world, even prompting the ire of North Korea.
The international climate change treaty, signed by 196 nations, aims to keep the global temperature rise this century well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, ideally at 1.5C.
Above this temperature rise, experts warn the world could descend into economic, environmental and societal collapse, resulting in extreme weather becoming the norm, widespread crop failure causing famine and rising sea levels swamping coastal regions.
On 20 January, 2021 – his first day in office – Biden brought the US back into the Paris climate accords.
But in November, a Trump campaign spokesperson told Politico that if he returned to power, he would withdraw from the agreement once again.
Ahead of the election, António Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned a second withdrawal by the US from the Paris agreement could leave the deal "crippled".
“If Trump wants to pull out of the Paris Agreement, again, and tries to blow up the negotiation process, they can do this in a variety of ways and create a headache for other developed countries,” Finnegan said. “The high income countries tend to negotiate as a block.
The results could spell consequences for other major powers that are under pressure to reduce their emissions.
“If America doesn't stick to its climate goals, you'll have countries like China, potentially India, saying, 'well if they're not sticking to the climate goals, we're not sticking to the climate goals now',” Pruszynski said.
Finnegan added: “If Trump doesn’t reduce emissions, climate change will be worse as a result for all of us."
What about next year's COP30 climate conference?
A second Trump withdrawal from the Paris accords could also threaten US involvement in the COP30 conference.
Without the presence of the US at COP30 – the first climate conference where every country is supposed to come back and submit an updated national determined contribution and increase its level of emissions reduction ambition – a lack of US presence could be extremely detrimental.
As the US now represents around 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is a key player in limiting the damage of the climate crisis.
“The US still plays just such a critical role in any sort of international negotiation. It is also a good opportunity, I think, for the US to hear the voices that typically aren't heard in this sort of conversation,” said Garraway.
“Small island states, those who are being directly impacted, are given, at least on paper, an equal weighting in terms of opportunities to speak.
“To have someone telling you that their home will be underwater in 20 years, it's a very powerful and impactful thing to hear.”
Does the American public share Trump's climate views?
While Trump may want to invest in fossil fuels and turn away from the global climate agenda, Garraway warned the realities of climate change are already being felt – and that the public mandate could have some sway.
“Only the other day did the US encounter Hurricane Helene, the impacts of which were made worse by climate change,” he said.
“Climate disasters like this are affecting states like Florida that predominantly vote Republican. They're seeing the impacts on their doorstep. Whether they fundamentally accept the science or not, their homes are being flooded.”
Finnegan believes that if Trump wins, progress on the climate will be beset “with more delays and more obstruction”.
“The progress that we made over the past few years, the clock just rolls back again,” he said. “US emissions likely will not increase further, they just won’t decrease as fast.
While Trump isn’t likely to double US emissions in four years, Finnegan warns that it’s paramount that he actively reduces them.
“I think it's more gumming up the policy process, so it takes another decade to get things going again. And we don’t have that time.”
That being said, there are other market forces at play.
“We're not going to be building new coal-fired power plants in the US. It's just not economically feasible. Solar and wind are also becoming cheaper. So even without policy, you get this drip, drip, drip of change,” he said.
“But that is not fast enough."