There may be another purpose to Trump’s trade war on Canada

Donald Trump’s inauguration speech listed several executive orders he planned to execute on his first day back in the White House. Conspicuous by its absence? The proposed 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican products.

Maybe the President had experienced a change of heart? Maybe he was going to work with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resolve his two main concerns: illegal immigration and the flow of illicit drugs like fentanyl into the United States? Maybe it had been nothing more than Trump being Trump?

That was a pipe dream. When a reporter asked Trump in the evening about the tariffs, he confirmed they were coming. “I think February 1,” he said, confirming also that it could be about 25 per cent on each country.

There you have it.

If Trump’s tariffs become a reality, what can Canada do? Many of the country’s political leaders, both Left and Right, say they are ready to push back.  

“If the President does choose to proceed with tariffs on Canada,” Trudeau said on Tuesday at a political retreat, the Canadian government will “respond and everything is on the table. I support the principle of dollar-for-dollar matching tariffs. It’s something that we are absolutely going to be looking at if that is how they move forward.”

Ontario premier Doug Ford, meanwhile, threatened to “clear off every bit of US alcohol off the shelves” in hundreds of stores operated by the Liquor Control Board of Ontario, a quasi-monopoly that oversees the province’s liquor retailing and distribution. He also suggested a “clear mandate” was necessary to wage this economic war, likely meaning a snap election.

One notable exception has been Alberta premier Danielle Smith. She went to Washington and spoke with Trump and Republican leaders in an intelligent, rational fashion. “I don’t know that [Trump] responds well to threats, especially empty ones,” she told the National Post on Tuesday. “I’m of the view that we have to find a deal from a more diplomatic point of view.” (Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe said on Wednesday that he would also oppose Trudeau’s “broad-based tariffs.”)

Smith is rare in adopting a common sense approach towards dealing with Trump. Practically everyone else is thumping their chests unwisely. For while Trudeau’s dollar-for-dollar approach to Trump’s tariffs may have a small impact, the country is largely defenceless against them.

“A 25 per cent tariff on all US-bound Canadian exports could throw the Canadian economy into a recession, squeezing gross domestic product by as much as 3 per cent,” the Wall Street Journal warned on Wednesday. Retaliatory tariffs would only add to the pain and could potentially hurt Canada’s economy and decrease business confidence in an already-shaky financial climate.

No-one is suggesting that Canada should just roll over and play dead. But anyone who believes that a middle power like Canada could disrupt a major economic force like the US has smoked far too much of the former’s legalised marijuana.

The timing is a problem, too.

Canada is currently in a political crisis. Trudeau has lost the faith of most Liberal cabinet colleagues and Canadians, and will be resigning once his successor has been chosen in early March. Since the country will be effectively leaderless when Trump’s threatened tariffs could come in, the need for a federal election could not be clearer.

Maybe that was Trump’s master plan all along. Bring down the weak, ineffective Liberals with crippling tariffs. And precipitate the early arrival of a Conservative government that’s like-minded about dealing with border security, illegal immigration and illicit drugs.

Michael Taube, a columnist for the National Post, Troy Media and Loonie Politics, was a speechwriter for former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper