Ease ineffective Covid restrictions, Nicola Sturgeon told, as Scotland’s case rate overtakes England’s

Nicola Sturgeon is facing further demands to announce the easing of restrictions after her own Government’s analysis of the pandemic admitted that Scotland’s Covid rate is higher than England’s.

The Scottish Government’s weekly state of the epidemic report said on average Scotland had 2,824 cases per million people in the week to Jan 6, compared with 2,615 in England.

England also had a much lower rate than Wales (3,481), the report said, despite Boris Johnson refusing to follow the tough restrictions imposed by Ms Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford, the Welsh First Minister, on hospitality and large events.

A second Scottish Government report disclosing the latest modelling of the pandemic showed that the omicron wave in Scotland is expected to peak this week, with cases then dropping rapidly.

Watch: Anti-lockdown protesters take to streets of Glasgow

The analysis said daily infections would peak at around 70,000 on Thursday or Friday this week before tumbling to around 20,000 by the end of the month.

This is much earlier than predictions made by Humza Yousaf, the Health Secretary, and Prof Jason Leitch, the national clinical director, who said the omicron “tsunami” would not peak until late January or early February.

The two Scottish Government reports were published ahead of a parliamentary statement on Tuesday by Ms Sturgeon, in which she is expected to announce whether any of her restrictions will be lifted next week.

The First Minister has said they will remain in place until at least next Monday. Warnings that the NHS is facing the toughest period in its history, with hundreds of staff being forced to self-isolate, may see her keep them in place for longer.

But Ms Sturgeon admitted last week she was rethinking her strategy for tackling Covid as omicron’s increased transmissibility meant restrictions were less effective at curtailing its spread.

Pubs and bars in Scotland are being forced to operate with one-metre social distancing, thereby reducing capacity, and table service. The number of spectators permitted at large events such as football matches is limited to only 500.

The modelling report disclosed that the proportion of Scots who visited a pub or restaurant in the fortnight to Dec 29 tumbled from 49 per cent to 32 per cent, devastating festive trade.

Hospitality industry leaders on Sunday urged her to bring her rules into line with England’s, where no such restrictions exist, arguing they had done nothing to stop the spread of omicron.

Stephen Montgomery, spokesman for the Scottish Hospitality Group, told the Sunday Times: “The entire pandemic needs to be handled as a coordinated UK approach from Westminster.

“The restrictions in Scotland haven’t stopped people socialising; shutting down the hospitality industry here just sent our customers across the border and elsewhere.”

Leon Thompson, director of UKHospitality Scotland, said: “There’s now a complete lack of trust in the Scottish Government over its handling of Covid and its intentions for businesses and the economy.

“The Scottish Government must show a commitment to keeping businesses open, just as it has committed to keeping schools open, instead of constantly choosing to shut firms down.”

Mr Yousaf defended the restrictions on Sunday by pointing to ONS figures showing one in 20 people in Scotland had the virus, compared to one in 15 in England.

However, these statistics are almost a week older than those in the Scottish government analysis, covering the seven days to Dec 31.

Scotland’s one in 20 rate is also broadly similar to that in many of the English regions outside London, despite the latter having no similar restrictions.

Referring to imposing another total lockdown, the Health Secretary told BBC Breakfast: “We know that if we wanted to stop omicron completely in its tracks and make a real dent into those case numbers, you could do something extreme.

“But nobody would contemplate that at the moment, because we know of course the severe impact that would have on the economy, on people’s mental health. So, it’s about balancing those really difficult harms and making sure we get the judgment right.”

He also said the SNP-Green coalition was not considering reducing the quarantine period for positive cases from seven days to five after Nadhim Zahawi, the English Education Secretary, argued the move would reduce staff shortages.

Mr Yousaf noted the Scottish Government had just cut the self-isolation period from 10 days to seven, weeks after the change was made in England.

Separately, Mark Drakeford, the Welsh First Minister, accused the Prime Minister of "ignoring the science" and being a "global outlier" in refusing to introduce further restrictions.

He also insisted it was "misleading" to compare Wales' higher national Covid rates to those in England.

"There are parts of Wales which are much lower than other parts of Wales, and parts of Wales which are much lower than the hotspots in England," he said. "Comparing the whole of Wales and the whole of England simply doesn't get to where the real nub of the issue lies.

"Our rates are still lower than English hotspots and we'd like to do our very best to keep it that way."

Watch: Covid self-isolation period cut to seven days in Scotland