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Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland by-election polls and odds: Who will win?

Ashley Kirk
Updated
Jeremy Corbyn faces tough test as voters go to the polls in Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central by-elections

Westminster is braced for a pair of crucial by-elections next week, with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party needing to hang onto two constituencies in its northern heartlands.

Both Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland will go to the polls on Thursday 23 February, following the resignations of Labour MPs Jamie Reed and Tristram Hunt. 

Betting odds currently have Theresa May's Conservative Party as the favourite to take Copeland, while Labour is currently the most likely choice in Stoke-on-Trent Central, but it will face a challenge to fight off Ukip.

Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election

Labour's Tristram Hunt won Stoke-on-Trent Central with a vote share of 39.3 per cent in 2015 - 16.7 points higher than the second-placed party, Ukip. 

Stoke-on-Trent Central | 2015 general election results

This was the fifth consecutive fall in the Labour vote share, which has fallen consistently from 66.2 per cent that the party achieved when Tony Blair swept to power in 1997.

2015 saw the lowest vote share that the party had ever achieved since the constituency's creation in 1950. 12 out of 18 of its Westminster elections have seen Labour win more than 60 per cent of the vote.

Stoke-on-Trent Central | Previous Labour vote shares

Ukip's rise in Stoke-on-Trent Central was quick - increasing its vote share from 4.3 per cent in 2010 to 22.7 per cent in 2015. It first contested the constituency in 2005, when it gained 3.3 per cent of the vote.

The party fancies its chances in the constituency, known as "Brexit Central", and has fielded party leader Paul Nuttall. 

Seven in ten people in the constituency voted for Brexit and, with Labour fielding a pro-Remain candidate, Ukip will be hoping to convert this anti-EU feeling into votes at the ballot box. However, Mr Nuttall has since faced criticism after he was forced to admit claims he lost close personal friends in the Hillsborough disaster are false.

Rise of Ukip in Stoke-on-Trent

Currently Labour is favourite to retain the Midlands constituency which has returned a Labour MP in every General Election it has ever had. 

Corals' latest odds for Stoke-on-Trent Central are: 

  • Labour: 8/15

  • Ukip: 9/4

  • Conservatives: 6/1

  • Liberal Democrats: 50/1

  • Greens: 250/1

Stoke-on-Trent by-election | Candidates

Copeland by-election

Labour won 42.3 per cent of the vote in Copeland in the 2015 General Election with Jamie Reed as its candidate. This was 6.5 percentage points higher than the Tories' vote share of 35.8 per cent.

Labour's own canvass returns show that it could lose the close by-election, with the party's support reportedly down a third since 2015.

Copeland | 2015 general election results

Much like Stoke-on-Trent Central, Ed Miliband's performance in 2015 led to the lowest vote share that the Labour Party has ever had in Copeland since the constituency was created in 1983. 

Labour's vote share has fallen in every Copeland election since it achieved 58.2 per cent in 1997 when Blair was party leader.

Copeland | Previous Labour vote shares

In line with the rest of North-West England, the constituency voted in favour of Brexit in last year's EU referendum - with 62 per cent voting Leave. 

Its unclear what effect this could have on the by-election, but polling shows that voters are struggling to understand what Labour's stance on Brexit is.

In contrast, 62 per cent of British people think that May's plans respect the result of the referendum. This could mean trouble for Gillian Troughton, the party's candidate for Copeland, who hopes to keep the local debate on the NHS' performance this winter.

Copeland | EU referendum results

The Conservatives are currently favourite in the by-election, with the Prime Minister visiting the constituency to join the campaign.

If they were to pull this off, it would be the first time in 35 years that the official opposition lost a by-election to the Government.

Corals' latest odds for Copeland are: 

  • Conservatives: 1/3

  • Labour: 9/4

  • Ukip: 33/1

  • Liberal Democrats: 33/1

  • Greens: 250/1

Copeland by-election | Candidates

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