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Emmanuel Macron will tell Theresa May that he’d love Britain to stay in the EU

Emmanuel Macron: would love Britain to remain in the EU: REUTERS
Emmanuel Macron: would love Britain to remain in the EU: REUTERS

Emmanuel Macron has two big objectives for his trip to Britain today. One is to protect France’s specific interests in the Brexit process, that is, its military and strategic co-operation with the UK. The other is to address the issue of Calais and its migrants.

On Brexit, M Macron would love Britain to remain in the EU. He has always been pro-British and as far as he is concerned the door will remain open for Britain to rejoin until the last second. We may not convince you but as far as he is concerned that’s the ideal outcome. If the British changed their minds, we’d have a party.

When it comes to the actual Brexit process, it is clear that it is the Germans, not the French, who are taking a more hostile, or at least a more dogmatic, approach to the negotiations with Britain. The French are very pragmatic and M Macron does not want to compromise

British-French co-operation when it comes to working together in diplomacy, defence and intelligence, whereas the Germans simply have economic interests to protect.

The British and French have a great deal in common — we have a de facto joint policy in the UN and we have the largest diplomatic networks outside the US in the world — and successful intelligence-sharing. The President will want to protect this co-operation. In a world in which Donald Trump doesn’t care about Europe, Vladimir Putin is challenging Europe and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to blackmail Europe, the British and French need a strong alliance.

The tricky issue for this visit isn’t just Brexit, however, it is Calais, which has become one of two really difficult domestic political issues for the President (the other concerns an airport in Brittany). M Macron is very successful in terms of domestic politics but this is turning into a real problem for him.

The Le Touquet agreement between Britain and France about dealing with refugees wanting to come to Britain is unbalanced in Britain’s favour. M Macron will want to get modifications to that agreement; he will look for concessions from the UK — maybe a greater financial contribution to dealing with migrants (£45 million has been mentioned) but maybe something more substantive.

If Brexit goes ahead, the obvious result, as M Macron recognises, is that France and Germany will be thrown closer together. That remains true even if Mrs Merkel leaves office — the Social Democrats in Germany are even more supportive of the Macron position on closer EU integration than Mrs Merkel is. But of course the best option is for Britain to stay in the EU. President Macron will make it clear to the Prime Minister that this outcome remains open.

Alain Minc is an economist​