Is Emmanuel Macron Tony Blair's agent provocateur to ensure Brexit fails?

As Theresa May returns from Brussels spluttering, one European leader appears to want to cut off her air supply altogether: Emmanuel Macron.

The French president has come out as the toughest opponent to an extension of any deadline unless London fundamentally rethinks its Brexit policy. The question is: Pourquoi?

Deeply unconvinced by Mrs May’s assurances she could win parliament’s backing for her exit deal, Macron has put her chances of success at “10 percent”. Other EU leaders were even more pessimistic.

But as if he were deliberately seeking to be typecast as the arrogant Gaul, Macron has also been sticking in the knife on the ability of Britain’s political class to agree a way forward. "British politicians are incapable of carrying out what their people instructed. Their people voted for Brexit. Parliament has voted against the agreement and no deal. It's a true democratic and political crisis,” he scoffed. 

His bluster almost ended in a full-blown row with Angela Merkel, say diplomatic sources, with the German leader warning the EU would be judged harshly by history if such brinkmanship ended in a chaotic hard Brexit.

Why play the agent provocateur?

Could the rationale for his tough stance come from briefings from Tony Blair? Sources in Paris say the Labour ex-Prime Minister has assured Macron standing firm is the best way to get parliament to cave into a customs union or second referendum. 

Whether Blair wields any influence, the truth is Macron has been toeing a tough line since the outset, branding Brexiters “liars” who peddled “fake news” to the nation. Why should they be granted any favours?

As always, domestic concerns loom large. The French president is currently walking a tightrope back home after four months of violent "yellow vest” protests. Deemed arrogant and out of touch by swathes of his own compatriots, he has nevertheless seen off a national insurrection by offering €10 billion in sweeteners and engaging the country in an unlikely “great debate” on its future.

To general surprise, the debate has been a success — if only as a national exercise in letting off steam. However, the trickiest part lies ahead. Macron has to come up with a convincing response to all these popular gripes or risk seeing the country descend once again into chaos.

On top of that, he faces his own nail-biting battle with Eurosceptic forces back home in the upcoming European parliamentary elections on May 26. The latest polls put Macron’s Europe on the Move group a whisker ahead of the National Rally of Marine Le Pen, friend to the likes of nationalists Matteo Salvini and Viktor Orban.

The last thing he wants is to offer any arguments to her camp that messing with the EU project pays. Hence his desire to avoid at all costs the risk of Britain crashing out on the eve of EU elections. Nor does he want to take any blame for a default hard Brexit, hence the May 22 extension. One can already hear Ms Le Pen accusing the Macron camp over their part in foiling the will of the British people.

Ultimately, does Macron’s intransigence belie a desire for a quick divorce with the UK or a last-minute rapprochement?

The tone of the letter the French president sent to European citizens earlier this month certainly suggests the former as it calls for a raft of new powers for the EU — from defence to trade protectionism — that he must know would be a turn off to Britons even mildly sceptical of Brussels. At the same time, he suggests that if Britain does sign the divorce papers, "the UK, I am sure, will find its true place” in a reformed multi-track Europe.

The Blair strategy suggests, quite on the contrary, that Macron is gunning for the UK to remain a full member, or as close to that as possible.

There are sound political and economic reasons for that stance.

France would be the second most affected member of the EU after Germany from a "no deal" Brexit, the Bertelsmann Foundation suggested this week. The cost would be €7.73 billion per year, their study said, with the biggest hit for northern France.

French fishermen would be barred from plentiful English seas, while many businesses would suffer major, perhaps permanent damage regarding exports and imports to and from Britain.

"The French are hard on the principles, but in reality it's another question," one senior European official confessed.

Another diplomat observed: "The French seem to be tougher at the moment. But when their fishing fleets cannot go out to sea anymore, and these people are on unemployment benefits and standing on the street right next to the yellow vests, what do you do then?”

Dominic Moisi, a political scientist who recently participated in high-level Franco-British defence and security talks, said the Blair line appeared the most credible. “I think the French view is that if you don’t leave, it is better for Europe and it will make things easier both for you and for us.

"There is a feeling that the tougher we play now, the better it is for the sanity and rationality of it all." 

Whether Macron's tough talk will have any bearing on the tumultuous coming weeks in Britain is another matter entirely.