Essential poll: a majority of Coalition voters support a net zero emissions target for 2050

A clear and growing majority of Coalition voters support the Morrison government adopting a net zero target for 2050, with support for that proposition climbing 12 points in a month, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

The latest fortnightly survey shows a majority of Australian voters support net zero either strongly or somewhat (75%, up four points in a month), and 68% of Coalition voters in the sample hold that positive view. Last month, the proportion of supportive Coalition voters was 56%.

The decisive shift in positive sentiment from Coalition voters follows calls from within the government to consider the 2050 target, and Labor’s decision late last week to sign on to net zero – confirmation that has reignited the climate wars in Canberra. While the Morrison government is leaving its options open on a 2050 target, its current messaging is suggestive of substituting a technology roadmap for a target.

Related: Morrison admits there are climate costs, but won't say what 3C heating would do to economy

The debate about net zero dominated parliament on Monday. The Coalition is blasting Labor for adopting the target in the absence of a fleshed-out plan to get there, while Labor and the Sydney independent MP Zali Steggall are pressuring the government to detail the impact of failing to act to prevent dangerous global heating.

More than 70 countries and 398 cities say they have adopted a net zero position. Every Australian state has signed up to net zero emissions by 2050, and these commitments are expressed either as targets or aspirational goals. Net zero is also supported by large companies and by their lobby group, the Business Council of Australia.

Given the resumption of partisan brawling about climate policy and tensions within both of the major parties about the future of coal, voters in the Guardian Essential survey were asked a number of questions about their attitudes to a transition to low emissions.

A majority of voters in the survey (75%) believe improvements in renewable energy means it will become less necessary to burn coal for electricity, and 65% say both advances in technology and global agreements on emissions reduction will result in coal becoming uneconomical to extract in the future.

A majority (64%) says if Australia is serious about climate action, we will need to get out of coal as soon as possible. All of those propositions attract majority support amongst Coalition voters (70%, 60%, 54%).

But a majority in the sample (61%, and 72% of Coalition voters) also say Australia should continue to export coal for steel production, even if we stop exporting coal for use in power plants.

The survey also points to divided sentiment between the city and regional areas. For example, city dwellers are more likely to agree with a statement that if Australia is serious about the climate emergency we need to exit coal (67%) than people in the regions (56%).

Voters were also asked about the future of coal-fired power plants, given the Morrison government has allocated $4m for a feasibility study examining a new facility at Collinsville. Also in prospect is taxpayer underwriting of coal – a development championed by Nationals but criticised by some moderate Liberals.

Just under half the sample (47%) say coal plants should continue to operate as long as they are profitable, but the industry should not be subsidised or expanded. Coalition voters are more comfortable than other voting cohorts with subsidies.

Related: Net zero emissions by 2050: is it a controversial ambition and will the Coalition adopt it?

Greens voters are the most supportive of moves to shut down the coal industry (62%) with that position endorsed by 36% of Labor voters and 21% of Coalition voters in the sample.

As well as the climate questions, voters were asked about the coronavirus, with experts saying the world is fast approaching a tipping point in the spread of the illness. Just under one-third of survey respondents have changed their behaviour in some way to try to avoid contracting the virus – either avoiding restaurants and shopping centres, or cancelling an overseas trip.

While 70% of people in the survey say their personal behaviour has been business as usual, four out of five respondents agree that because of global movements in people, humanity is more vulnerable to the spread of viruses (81%).

There is also strong support (80%) for the travel ban that prevents Chinese visitors entering Australia, and only 20% say the border with China should remain open to protect revenue from tourism and overseas students. Both the Morrison government and the media get the thumbs up from the sample for managing the risks and reporting the latest developments.

There has been controversy post-election about the reliability of opinion polling, as none of the major surveys – Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy or Essential – correctly predicted a Coalition victory last May. The polls instead projected Labor in front on a two-party-preferred vote of 51-49 and 52-48.

The lack of precision in the polling has prompted public reflection at Essential, as has been flagged by its executive director, Peter Lewis.

Guardian Australia is not now publishing measurements of primary votes or a two-party-preferred calculation, but is continuing to publish survey results of responses to questions about the leaders and a range of policy issues.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3%. The sample size this fortnight is 1,090 respondents.