Ethnic Minority Votes Helped Cameron Win: Survey

A Conservative strategy to target Hindu and Sikh voters may have helped David Cameron to sweep into power.

According to new research, over one million ethnic minority votes were cast for the Tories - the highest share the party has ever enjoyed from an electoral group it has failed to connect with in the past.

The survey conducted for think-tank British Future shows Labour remains ahead with minority voters on 52%. But the gap is shrinking between the two main parties.

One third (33%) of ethnic minority voters supported the Conservatives in 2015. Liberal Democrats and Greens took 5% of the ethnic minority vote, with 2% voting for UKIP and 1% SNP.

Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said: "Ethnic minority votes are more ‘up for grabs' than ever before.

"While David Cameron clearly took a lot of votes from the Lib Dems in the election, he also seems to have extended his party's appeal to ethnic minority voters, too."

The findings are based on an estimated three million ethnic minority voters taking part in the election.

The results equate to 1.6 million votes for Labour, with the Conservatives securing 1 million ethnic minority votes for the first time in the party's history.

The Lib Dems and Greens both secured around 150,000 ethnic minority votes, with UKIP on 60,000 and SNP on 40,000.

Mr Katwala says Labour found it hard to turn its support from ethnic minorities into electoral success because of where the votes were concentrated.

"Labour remains ahead with minority voters, but the party may have won too many of its minority votes in the wrong places electorally - doubling majorities in heartland urban seats that were already safe but slipping in the southern marginals.

"But in places like Watford, Swindon and Milton Keynes, Conservatives can be increasingly confident of their appeal to aspirational ethnic minority voters.

"The middle-England 'Mondeo Man' of the 2015 election could well be a British Asian."

But the idea of a single ethnic minority vote bank is simplistic and flawed. There are political differences within these communities that the Conservatives recognised and exploited.

The Tories decided to target Hindu and Sikh communities as they were seen as more likely to vote Conservative. This research suggests that is indeed the case.

Among Hindus 49% supported Conservative compared to 41% who voted Labour. The figures were the same for the Sikh community. But 64% of Muslims voted Labour - easily more than double the 25% who supported the Tories.

Omar Khan, director of think-tank Runnymede Trust, said: "These findings confirm that Labour remains the preferred choice among BME voters, but also that the Conservative party has made a breakthrough in winning around a third of those votes, nearly matching their overall national vote share.

"The research also offers new evidence on what we know about voting patterns among different ethnic groups and in different areas in modern Britain."