What is the EU position on alternative Brexit options?

After MPs’ crushing rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the EU response was swift and coordinated. In several languages, but usually English, leaders and politicians made plain the EU had no intention of conjuring up a plan to break the deadlock. “The ball is now in the court of the British lower house,” said Austria’s chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, echoing a widely held view in national capitals and the EU institutions.

So what are the options for the prime minister and parliament and how will the European Union react?

Try again and seek concessions from the EU

May’s first instinct is to resurrect a version of the deal that preserves her red lines. The EU27 has already ruled out changing the deal unless the UK alters those red lines. The bloc, in a “letter of reassurance” sent by EU leaders Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk on Monday, raided its cupboard of legal devices and goodwill promises in an attempt to convince parliamentarians. EU officials feel there is nothing more to give and see further talks as pointless until the UK has a plan.

Scrap the backstop

The government has been facing renewed calls from Brexiters to scrap the contested Irish backstop, despite MPs voting down an amendment to May’s deal to this effect.

This plan is destined to fail. The EU has invested so much political capital in the backstop that abandoning it now would have politically damaging consequences for EU unity. Overriding the wishes of Ireland would send a message that those of a “difficult” country that has chosen to leave count for more than a member state. “We stand by the backstop, as long as Ireland stands by the backstop,” one EU diplomat said.

Some have speculated that the EU could be persuaded to return to its original version of the backstop, the Northern Ireland-only plan favoured by the bloc until October. But that implies a different government: Theresa May and her Democratic Unionist supporters have ruled out that option many times.

Go for Canada-plus

Ardent Brexiters have claimed that May has a simple option. “The PM must go straight back to the EU’s [free-trade agreement] offered by Tusk in March,” said the former cabinet minister Owen Paterson.

This ignores the fact that the EU will only agree a free-trade deal if the UK signs the existing withdrawal agreement, which includes the Irish backstop. When the EU talks of “pluses” in any Canada-style deal, it means other non-trade deals on security, fisheries and foreign policy. When Brexiters talk of pluses, or Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Canada, they have been looking for advantages that Brussels has repeatedly ruled out.

Switch to Norway

MPs who favour a soft Brexit used the Commons defeat to increase calls for a Norway-style relationship that would keep the UK in the European Economic Area and allow it to enter the European Free Trade Association (Efta). Now rebranded as “Common Market 2.0”, this would be the least economically damaging form of Brexit. Proponents may have been heartened by the statement from the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, that the EU was ready to change its Brexit offer if the UK changed its red lines.

From the EU’s point of view, nothing in the withdrawal agreement or political declaration needs to be changed to embark on negotiations for a Norway-style relationship. While the EU would be open to adjusting the non-binding political declaration to help the UK achieve this goal, other pitfalls lie ahead. EU officials have noted they cannot compel Norway and other Efta members to accept the UK into their club. Insiders have also cast doubts on British expectations of being able to be “a rule-shaper” while outside the EU.

Ask for more time

A British request to extend Brexit talks is increasingly been seen as a matter of when, not if. French and German ministers say the UK should have more time if needed; diplomats say they cannot see any of the EU27 objecting if the UK has a good reason.

“Good” reasons would include to strike a deal after receiving a realistic proposal from the UK, or to hold an election or second referendum, not simply to prolong the pain of the departure. However, Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, noted that prolonging article 50 would not be easy because of European elections in late May.

A new European parliament is due to be sworn in in July. Having the UK as a member state beyond then could be legally tricky, although some think the problem could be fixed by a special clause in the withdrawal agreement to allow British MEPs to sit for a few months. “There are thousands of political problems, but from a legal point of view everything is possible,” a diplomat said.

Other officials stress that the first priority for Brussels is ensuring the EU is correctly “legally constituted”, meaning no one would welcome a barrage of legal challenges from British citizens just as the EU is attempting to launch a new work programme.

Cancel Brexit

The clock is ticking, but the UK remains a member state, with the right to withdraw its article 50 letter without permission from the EU.