What has the EU been up to in the run-up to Brexit?

While the UK parliament has passed the EU withdrawal agreement and argued over whether Big Ben bongs at the moment of Brexit, the European Union has been sharpening its position for the next phase of talks.

Over this month, more than 200 EU diplomats have taken part in 11 seminars totalling more than 35 hours. Led by the team of the chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, the seminars, which conclude on Wednesday with a meeting of EU ambassadors, are intended to keep the bloc together, before difficult talks on the post-Brexit future relationship.

What have we learned?

The EU’s opening offer has been confirmed: the UK will be given a zero-tariff, zero-quota free-trade deal, in exchange for signing up to core EU standards to protect the environment, workers’ and consumers’ rights, and avoiding “unfair” state subsidies. Known as “the level playing field”, these standards are like a slogan through a stick of rock for the EU.

For now, it remains undecided whether that means following the precise letter of EU law or the UK being allowed to adopt equivalent standards. One source said that depended on the level of risk and size of the sector.

If any British government broke these terms, it would face fines. The EU is also insisting on independent regulators to uphold the agreement in the UK, although the role of the European court of justice remains unclear.

Isn’t that cherry-picking by the EU?

Some British commentators have argued the EU is guilty of the charge often levelled at the UK: trying to pick out the best bits of the UK-EU trading relationship, without accepting the consequences of Brexit.

The EU counters that it has made the UK an exceptionally generous offer. The EU does not have a zero-tariff, zero-quota, traditional free-trade agreement with any country in the world, so wants corresponding guarantees in return. EU governments fear that if UK firms are allowed free entry to the EU market without following rules, for example on chemicals, industrial pollution or worker safety, British firms will have an unfair advantage.

What about everything else?

Trade is only one aspect of the upcoming talks. The EU envisages one single agreement with the UK, with two core parts: one on economic relations, including trade, but also energy, fish and transport. The second part will cover security, including police co-operation, data-sharing and external security. Notably, the EU sees security co-operation underpinned by the UK’s membership of the European court of human rights, a body that predates the EU that is also a bete noire for British Eurosceptics.

The entire deal will be underpinned by one dispute settlement mechanism, although it is not clear how far this includes a role for the EU court of justice.

Why does the EU prioritise fish and not financial services?

Because the EU is acting in its own interest. Maintaining the status quo on fishing rights is a top priority for the EU’s Atlantic and North Sea coastal states. Barnier’s plan to link negotiations on fishing quotas to trade talks has “general support” from EU member states, according to an internal document.

In contrast, the EU does not see financial services as being up for negotiation: it will decide on whether financial firms in the City of London, such as banks and insurance companies, will be granted EU market access (equivalence). Likewise, the EU will make a unilateral decision on whether the UK’s data-protection standards are deemed good enough for information exchange, when it issues an “adequacy” decision.

What about people and EU programmes?

The EU’s policy on allowing workers from the UK will depend on the British government’s new migration policy, but Brussels hopes to strike special provisions for students and researchers. Similarly, the UK’s participation in EU programmes, such as research and the Erasmus student exchange programme, will depend on whether the UK intends to take advantage of existing rules allowing non-EU countries to take part, if they pay into the budget.

Will this be agreed by the end of 2020?

Nobody knows, but the deadline is extremely tight. Talks are expected to begin at the end of next month, after the EU agrees its negotiating objectives on 25 February. That leaves as little as eight months to strike an agreement, because the final text needs to be put to MEPs for ratification by October or November (a procedural deadline that remains fuzzy). The latest internal document from the EU states (in red type) there is a “cliff edge” in many areas on 31 December 2020, if the two sides fail to reach an agreement, meaning “no return to the status quo”.