Euro 2016: Belgium v Wales preview - a battle between flawed tactics and wonderful team spirit

The second of a four part series previews the match between Belgium and Wales at Grand Stade Lille Metropole.

Head to Head

Tournament Record

Loss-Win-Win-Win

Goals scored: 8

Goals conceded: 2

Top scorer: Romelu Lukaku (2)

Most assists: Eden Hazard (3), Kevin De Bruyne (2)

Win-Loss-Win-Win

Goals Scored: 7

Goals Conceded: 3

Top scorer: Gareth Bale (3)

Most assists: Aaron Ramsey (2)

Tactical Talking Points

Belgium

Absences: Thomas Vermaelen (suspension) and Jan Vertonghen (injury)

Yellow cards: Jan Vertonghen, Thomas Meunier, Axel Witsel, Marouane Fellaini and Michy Batshuayi

Makeshift Defence

Marc Wilmots enters the quarter-final stage with an injury stricken defense. Thomas Vermaelen has been a steady and reliable performer thus far in the heart of defense and his suspension for the game will mean that Jason Denayer will probably come in. The Manchester City centre-back is a natural in the position but is yet to see a minute of tournament action, so whether he can seamlessly integrate within the setup is a cause for concern.

Similarly, the news that Jan Vertonghen has damaged his ligaments in the last match training preparation will have given Wilmots an even bigger headache. 21 year-old Jordan Lukaku is expected to deputise and his inexperience will definitely count against him.

Having entered the tournament already missing his first choice centre-back pairing of Vincent Kompany and Nicolas Lombaerts, the Belgian defense is now down to its very bare bones. The onus will ultimately fall on Toby Alderweireld and the reliable Thomas Meunier to steady a sinking ship.

Midfield Battle

Coming up against a Welsh outfit that stockpiles the centre of the field, it is imperative that Radja Nainggolan starts ahead of Moussa Dembele. The latter is technically gifted and his passing range is of good use, however Nainggolan’s physical presence as well his all-action style and aggressiveness would act as a perfect foil for his opposite counter-part Joe Ledley.

As his midfield partner, Axel Witsel has had a brilliant tournament and his intricate passing has been a particular standout (he has averaged a 92% pass completion rate). Witsel’s composure, in specific, could be key in a game that requires patient build up play and domination of possession.

As an impact sub, Marouane Fellaini could later become an option. Despite the neutrals’ reservations, the Manchester United midfielder’s physical prowess (and his unmatched ability in the air) could another add dimension to a Belgian team pushing for a goal.

Attacking Prowess

If their round of 16 clash with Hungary has taught us anything, it’s that this Belgian team is clicking at just the right team. Against a Welsh team expected to sit back and contain, Belgium could not have asked for better players to pick out passes and stretch tiring defenses.

Eden Hazard returns to the city where he made his professional debut and Wilmots will be hoping that his virtuoso performance against the Hungarians could be replicated in a scene closer to home. Hazard put in a devastating performance in the round of 16; both scoring and assisting a goal, a 90% pass completion rate, 4 chances created and completing 12 successful take-ons (the highest number of dribbles recorded in a single game in the European Championships since 1980). If the Chelsea magician can show anything near his top-form, then Wales’ defensive trio (James Chester, Ashley Williams and Ben Davies) could be in for a long tough night.

To make matters worse, Kevin De Bruyne, despite recording 2 assists in the tournament, is due one true revealing. The Manchester City playmaker has been an influential cog in Wilmots’ attacking formation (he has been directly involved in 33 of the 100 international goals Belgium have scored under Wilmots with 13 goals and 20 assists) yet his form during the tournament has been nowhere near his imperious best. Where Wilmots has deployed him could perhaps be a reason for his waning influence (he was shunted out wide in the group opener) so it is vital that De Bruyne is given a central license with the likes of Carrasco and Hazard forming a formidable wide unit (Dries Mertens was extremely wasteful against Hungary so Carrasco should begin from the onset).

Further forward, Romelu Lukaku has finally come of age. His build-up play, ability to hold the ball and bring others into play as well as his occasional deadly finishing has been a bright spark in a tournament bereft of attacking superlatives.

Tactical Ineptitude

Wilmots is not a tactical mastermind and his failings against Italy in the tournament curtain-raiser were plain for all to see. Coincidentally for Belgium, Wales lineup their troops using a similar three-man backline that Antonio Conte employed against them, so it would be an interesting sub-plot to see whether Wlimots has ultimately learnt his lesson. Moreover, Belgium can crucially suffer against tactically sophisticated sides. And with a highly-organized and well-drilled Welsh unit, it will be intriguing to see whether Wilmots can turn a game on its head.

Wales

Absences: None

Yellow Cards: Ben Davies, Aaron Ramsey, Neil Taylor and Sam Vokes

Physical Battle

Chris Coleman has molded his troops into a well-drilled, high-spirited and tight-knit collective unit. More than anything, the team’s renowned motto “Together Stronger” emphasizes the  importance that Coleman places on physical domination.

His defensive line, marshaled by captain Ashley Williams are yet to face a big physical forward. Enter Romelu Lukaku. The Everton forward is a beast of a player and his battle with Williams could be key.

Additionally, James Chester has had a superb tournament. The West Bromwich Albion centre half has won the most tackles of any defender in the tournament (13) and also leads the way in terms of interceptions (14). Having become an integral component of a solid back-line, Chester’s ability (or not) to nullify the threat of Belgium’s fearless attacking unit could pave the way for a famous victory.

Tireless Unit

The midfield as well comprises a strong collective unit. The team’s talisman Gareth Bale feeds on tireless workers behind him.

Joe Allen has been a steadying influence in the middle of the park, making key tackles and using the ball well. Add that to Joe Ledley’s break-up play and ability to retain possession (a key characteristic against an attack-minded Belgian outfit) and you have an exciting midfield battle between Radja-Witsel  and Allen-Ledley of uncanny resemblance.

Up top, Hal Robson-Kanu should get the nod ahead of Sam Vokes. The Reading striker’s tireless running and ability to drag defenses wide could be key against an injury-stricken Belgian line.

Telepathic Duo

There’s no denying that Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale have been running the show. The first has been involved in 3 goals (1 goal and 2 assists) and the latter has been one of the tournament standout performers (3 goals). Specifically against the Belgians, it is Bale’s quality, versatility and unpredictability that can cause the make-shift defense some serious problems. It is important to note here that Bale has been particularly effective having hit 13 shots on target (since 1980 only Michel Platini has had more shots on target in a single tournament).

That being said, against a troubled defense, it is imperative for Chris Coleman to give Bale and Ramsey free license to roam.

Key Statistics

- This is the first meeting between the two teams in a major tournament.

- This is the second time Wales have reached a knockout stage of a major tournament (quarter-finalists in 1958 World Cup versus Brazil).

- Wales have lost only 2 of their 9 games at major competitions (both by the one goal margins).

- Belgium have made the quarter-finals at a major tournament for the second consecutive time (2014 World Cup). The last time they made the semi-finals of a major competition was in the 1986 World Cup.

- Belgium have won 7 of their last 9 games at major competitions.

- Gareth Bale is Wales top goal-scorer in major competitions (3 goals).

- Aaron Ramsey has scored or assisted 3 of the last 5 goals for Wales.

- Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in 12 goals in his 12 games for Belgium (5 goals and 7 assists).

- Belgium have not scored against Wales in the last 3 hours of football.

- Wales are the first debuting nation to top their group at the Euros since Sweden in 1992.

- Wales are the first team to win a match in a knockout stage of the Euros with just 1 shot on target (versus Northern Ireland). The last team to do that was Greece in the 2004 final.

Expected Lineups

Final Verdict

This game could simply boil down to who scores first. If Belgium get the early goal, Wales will go on the offensive and their strong solid shape will be foresaken. The Belgians’ lethal attack strives on spaces and the result could consequently be rather emphatic.

On the contrary, if Wales get the early goal, their collective strength and spirit, coupled with Wilmots’ infamous ability to struggle in breaking down teams could ultimately set the tone for a surprise.

Having said that, I am still anticipating a close encounter, but I predict the Belgians’ prowess to see them through.

Final Result: Belgium to win 3-1