Evening Standard comment: As EU says no, Tories plot for a new leader

When asked why the Dutch Prime Minister decided to have breakfast with Theresa May this morning, his foreign minister gave the withering reply: “Well, you can’t refuse someone a cup of coffee.”

The Prime Minister’s trip to European capitals today is a charade. It is designed to show forward movement when she has, as everyone can see, ground to a halt.

Mrs May says she is going to seek “reassurances” that the backstop is not permanent, and that we can leave unilaterally.

But she knows that it is and we can’t — it’s stated clearly in the legally binding withdrawal agreement and in the advice from the Attorney General.

As the President of the European Commission made clear again this morning , there is “no room for renegotiation”.

Some in Britain forget that the EU has long experience of dealing with desperate leaders trying to save their skins.

Just ask a succession of Greek prime ministers. Other Brexiteer fantasists talk up the prospect of a new Irish famine or the collapse of the Dutch economy as a means of bringing Brussels back begging for a last-minute deal.

As throughout this negotiation, not only is such talk about our allies insulting, it also foolishly underestimates the resilience and solidarity of the remaining 27 member states.

European leaders see confronting Brexit as part of a much wider struggle against a rampant populism that also threatens them. After losing battle after battle against the populists, here in Britain they have found one they think they can win.

So the mood in Europe is clear: we will wait you out.

Leadership

If you want to understand the mood back in Westminster the morning after the night before, imagine how the loyal MP who backed Mrs May feels.

For the past two weeks you have had arguments with your local party supporters, you have written replies to angry constituents and you have gone out on a limb in your local paper to support her unpopular deal.

It turns out that it was all for nothing. You have been marched up the Brexit hill — and then yesterday, as the crunch vote was cancelled, you have been marched down again.

Now spare a thought for one of the few Cabinet ministers who were prepared to talk to the media to defend the PM. You put your credibility on the line when you said there was a “100 per cent” chance that a vote on the deal would go ahead.

The truth was, there was close to a zero per cent chance. If the division had been called, the Government would have gone down to the biggest parliamentary defeat for more than a century. That was obvious a week ago.

Indeed, you told the Prime Minister she would lose and that it was better to retreat gracefully; but your advice, if it was even heard, was ignored.

So what do you do now? The answer: organise your leadership campaign. Fevered preparations are under way by all those who are considered contenders , and by some who are not.

MPs are being canvassed, teams are being assembled, and pledges of money sought. After yesterday’s humiliation, “when” not “whether” has become the only conversation in Tory circles.

At least, the thinking goes, a leadership contest would give the winner a chance of using their mandate to reassemble a parliamentary majority for one of the various Brexit options facing Britain.

But a problem remains: none of the serious leadership candidates want to initiate the contest by publicly calling on Mrs May to step down, and she doesn’t have the imagination to call a confidence motion herself.

So instead everyone waits for others to do their dirty work for them, silently counting the numbers as other Tory MPs put their no-confidence letters in. It is far from heroic.

For hoping that the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg will act where you dare not is hardly a sign that you are ready to lead.

What holds the main contenders back is the old Tory cliché that “the person who wields the knife never wears the crown”.

Yet that is precisely what Margaret Thatcher did in 1975 when she broke ranks and challenged another enfeebled Conservative leader; by the time those who had timidly held back had entered the race, it was too late and she won.

Who has the courage to follow Mrs T’s example in 2018?