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Evening Standard comment: Will what made Boris Johnson PM also bring him down?
Boris Johnson says of himself “I know I’m not a team player but I think I could lead a team”. Britain is about to find out whether he’s right. Aim off the choreography of the new Prime Minister’s arrival this afternoon. The meeting with the Queen, the arrival in Downing Street and the first appointments will be breathlessly covered — but we’ve seen them all before and we know to discount them. Every Cabinet shuffle of the past 20 years gets billed as the most diverse ever, yet a week later no one can remember half of their names. Every speech outside Downing Street has had a telling phrase that makes the front pages the next day, and it’s a burning injustice, but they are soon forgotten. Every new administration is billed as a huge improvement on its exhausted predecessor, until the strutting new advisers fail and people yearn for the old days.The key question is this: can we identify now the seeds of the success or the coming failure of the new government? For there’s a good rule in British politics: what makes a Prime Minister is also what, in the end, breaks them. Think Margaret Thatcher, the Iron Lady who became the overbearing leader who wouldn’t listen. John Major, the conciliator after the Thatcher years who ended up in office but not in power. Tony Blair, the great communicator who became Tony Bliar. David Cameron, the moderniser who promised to end the Tory obsession with Europe and was killed by it. Theresa May, the unflashy provincial who it turned out had neither the imagination nor showmanship the job needs. Charisma So what does Boris Johnson bring with him — and what could bring him down? We know he is the most charismatic politician of our era. Don’t underestimate the immediate tonic of having someone in Downing Street who can communicate, after the past three years. The country could do with someone who peddles optimism. But we also know that the jokes will wear thin if the new Prime Minister fails to demonstrate the application and attention to detail which we have a right to expect from someone who makes decisions that affect millions of lives. We also know that Johnson is the first backbencher to become Prime Minister in our modern history — all previous premiers have arrived with a seasoned operation built up either in opposition or in one of the big departments of government. He is at heart a loner but he has assembled those who worked with him effectively in City Hall and on the Vote Leave campaign. By far the most significant, and risky, appointment is Dominic Cummings . To some he is the creative genius who rightly ignores the rules and delivered the stunning victory in the Brexit referendum. To others, not least many Brexiteers, he is erratic and destructive — and carries with him all the Cambridge Analytica baggage of broken rules, which the media will now unpack again. His arrival means Mr Johnson is taking very seriously the prospect of an early general election or another referendum — which, looking at the vanishing Tory majority, is very sensible.Finally, of course, Mr Johnson brings with him the method of his means of ascent. He has become Prime Minister because he led the Brexit campaign against the last-but-one Tory leader, then led the rebellion against the Brexit deal proposed by the leader that followed. There were other routes to the summit open to the former Mayor of London but the one he chose split his party and his country. He broke it. Now can he fix it?The early signs are mixed. No previous premier’s arrival in Downing Street has been accompanied by a series of pre-emptive ministerial resignations. No other winner of a party contest has so firmly tied themselves to such a singular and early definition of success — Mr Johnson says we will be out of the EU in just 99 days’ time. Ignore all the froth about a packed domestic agenda. No one called on him to install their broadband connection. If he doesn’t deliver the early Brexit many believe the unmoveable EU and Commons arithmetic makes impossible, he will have to call that election or referendum. There are few premiers who have spent longer than Mr Johnson angling for the keys to Number 10. Now his urgent task is to ensure that he doesn’t spend a shorter time in the building than any of his predecessors.
Once Britain’s jobs crisis meant there were more people looking for work than there were places to fill. Now it’s the other way around. Yesterday brought news that unemployment in the UK has fallen again, by 51,000 over the past three months, to just under 1.3 million. The welfare reforms of the past decade have worked. Now employers can’t find enough people with the proper skills to take the jobs that they have to offer. That’s why they are right to call today for a sensible immigration system that allows people from other countries to come here to make our country richer and stronger.
The #FullStrength campaign, backed by retailers, builders, tech companies, universities and more , wants the planned £30,000 salary threshold for new migrants to be cut to £20,000 — because the current proposal is absurd. It would mean we’d allow people to come from abroad to take the best-paid jobs but struggle to find enough workers for other vacancies to keep our vital services and businesses running.
The good news is that the next prime minister agrees. Both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt think a liberal, flexible and properly enforced immigration system is better than the one we’ve had for the past decade which pretended to talk tough, with targets that weren’t met and borders which weren’t enforced. But how do you explain this to voters? After all, opposition to immigration is assumed to be one of the reasons the country voted for Brexit in the EU referendum. It’s not going to be comfortable telling them that even after Brexit, if it ever happens, there will be more people coming here.
That’s why Mr Johnson, like a number of other politicians, has talked of an Australian-style points system. It sounds impressively tough and it goes down well with Right-wing supporters. But in fact it is a way of encouraging immigration, by selecting people on their skills. Australia has a higher level of immigration than we do. It is one of the reasons Australia is richer today than it has ever been before. It has lots of migrants. It is one of the reasons London is a leading world city too. So will the new prime minister do what’s right for the economy and the country? Or will he keep up the sham of talking tough? Employers are right to press for an answer.
Bailey’s bright idea
So much is going on in politics right now that Londoners can be excused for not noticing there’s soon to be a contest to choose the next Mayor. But in May next year we’ll vote to decide if Sadiq Khan deserves a second term.
It’s an important job. After all, his predecessor is all set to take over the country. When he won, Mr Khan said his priority was to build more affordable homes. He’s promised to start building 116,000 by 2022. In the past year, work began on 14,544, just inside his target — but that will have to climb to 45,000 soon, which looks impossible unless policies change.
So all credit today to his Tory opponent, Shaun Bailey, for backing a Housing for London body to start building them itself on publicly owned land . It’s the sort of big, chunky idea that could work. Mr Bailey has a mountain to climb if you believe the polls. But thinking big is the right way to go about it. He is starting to make this contest interesting.
Nazanin is not forgotten
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe should be at home with her family in Britain. Instead, jailed in Iran, she’s just been transferred to a mental-health hospital and her family haven’t had any contact with her for 48 hours. It must be terrifying for them, especially as reports say her health is getting worse . She is innocent. The Iranian government knows it. She is a victim of politics and she should be freed. As tensions rise between the west and Iran, her plight might seem worse than ever. But allowing her to return to Britain would be a sign Iran still wants to talk.
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