Evening Standard Comment: Rishi Sunak must think fast to avoid inflation mire

The 3.2 per cent inflation figure for August posted today is a record since such statistics began to be compiled in 1997 and presents a headache for Chancellor Rishi Sunak. That’s because for all the talk of exceptional factors driving the August total up, the danger is that inflation stays relatively high over the coming months too, and, inevitably, generates pressure for higher wages and welfare payments to compensate.

That would push up mortgage rates and payments on government debt at a time when the Government can least afford it to happen and, after last week’s National Insurance hike, puts the public in the unhappy position of facing higher taxes and higher prices at the same time.

That would be politically toxic for the Government and, worse still, disastrous for the country. The only answer to this threat is to encourage the growth that will generate extra taxes and keep public debt down. Measures to encourage foreign investment, to help small and medium-sized businesses create jobs and to support the self-employed are all needed, but not enough is being delivered so far. The Chancellor needs to think imaginatively and hard, and act quickly before today’s inflation warning turns into something worse.

Begum is still a risk

The former Bethnal Green schoolgirl Shamima Begum, who left London aged 15 to join Islamic State in Syria, has made a renewed appeal today on TV to be allowed to return to this country from the refugee camp where she’s now stranded. She claims she’s abandoned her former beliefs and could use her experiences to help others see through the arguments of extremists. All this might be true and this newspaper has sympathy with the argument that someone born and raised in this country, as Ms Begum was, is our responsibility — despite the removal of her citizenship on grounds upheld by the courts that she already has Bangladeshi nationality.

But let’s be clear that there are no easy choices and that it’s understandable too why ministers have put domestic security first. Even if Ms Begum’s assurances can be relied on, which is uncertain, her presence here would risk inflaming other extremists and be a long-lasting burden on police and intelligence agencies. It’s a difficult dilemma that won’t go away.

Be clear over curbs

The Government’s winter plan for dealing with Covid contains the depressing option of a “Plan B” involving the return of restrictions such as compulsory mask-wearing and even a potential further lockdown. But clarity over what will trigger such measures is missing with Professor Chris Whitty citing hospitalisation rates and the Prime Minister speaking vaguely of “all sorts of data”.

The public deserves better, not least because talk of going backwards undermines confidence and vital economic recovery. Nor does uncertainty help the country learn to live with Covid now that most are double-vaccinated. Indeed, rather than new restrictions, the best approach would be to intensify efforts to get the minority of unvaccinated adults jabbed so that Plan B can stay on the shelf.

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