Exclusive: Exam watchdog warned that new GCSE grading system will lead to more children getting incorrect marks

The exam watchdog warned that the new GCSE grading system will lead to more children getting the wrong marks, it has emerged.

A technical report published by Ofqual last year told of the “profound effect” that introducing more grade boundaries will have on students being awarded the correct mark.

It comes after a series of experts spoke of the “alarming” consequences of the numerical system, as they predicted that thousands of students are set to receive the wrong GCSE mark this week.

The revelation that even the exam regulator has highlighted the potentially disastrous implications of the new system will come as an embarrassment for the Department for Education, which insists that the changes are part of our drive to raise school standards.  

Students will receive their GCSE results on Thursday for the first time under a system which uses grades nine to one, rather than from A* to G.

The grades were designed by former Education Secretary Michael Gove as part of a package of reforms to toughen up syllabuses and to counter grade inflation at the top end, since A and A* are split between seven, eight and nine.

Ofqual report

Pupils will be marked under the new system for English Literature, English Language and Maths, while the rest of their subjects will be marked under the old A* to G grades.

Under the new system, the grade boundaries that affect the vast majority of candidates have increased from four (A* to D) to six (nine to three).

The authors of an Ofqual report, titled Marking Consistency Metrics, note that the probability of a student receiving a “definitive grade” is “significantly influenced” by the location of the grade boundaries.

It says: “Where grade boundaries are close together...the marking consistency will have a more profound impact on the probability of being awarded the definitive grade.”

The report explains that the wider the grade boundary locations, the greater the probability of candidates receiving the right grade.

“This is a very important point: the design of an assessment might be as important as marking consistency in securing the ‘true’ grade for candidates,” it added. 

The report, which was published last November, was written by two members of Ofqual’s strategy, risk and research directorate and an external statistician. 

Experts have already told of their serious misgivings about the new system. Robert Coe, a professor in Durham University’s School of Education, told The Sunday Telegraph that under the new system, in some cases a child’s grade will be “not much more than chance”.

Neil Sheldon, vice-president for education and statistical literacy at the Royal Statistical Society, added that the new process "is bound to produce inaccurate results".

However, Dr Michelle Meadows, Ofqual’s executive director for strategy, risk and research, defended the changes, saying:  "New GCSEs have been designed from first principles to deliver better differentiation on the new 9 to 1 grading scale.

“The new GCSE exams and mark schemes have been created to support the increase in the number of grades, with better spread of grade boundaries and reliable assessment."