Exeter vs Northampton: Mismatched semi-finals would need the biggest of ‘thrilling’ upsets to justify billing

We already know this Saturday’s Gallagher Premiership semi-finals will be “thrilling” because Premier Rugby’s press release on Thursday told us so.

We also know the Gallagher Premiership is the “most exciting club rugby league” in the world because the same Premier Rugby press release on Thursday told us so.

Not that Premier Rugby would have anything to gain by pushing this message but let’s just settle down and look forward to what promises to be a couple of decent games at the end of a bizarre season, every bit as predictable at the top of the table as it has been unpredictable at the bottom.

Precisely which ingredients are required to make a league “the most exciting in the world” are unclear, and let’s not forget the creeping prospect of the Premiership being ringfenced that would drive a steamroller through the relegation intrigue we’ve witnessed this season, but on balance it’s been an interesting nine months of club rugby in England.

We knew from around late September the top two clubs would be Exeter Chiefs and defending champions Saracens. They remain by so far and away the best two teams in England it is inconceivable they will not meet again at Twickenham in the final on 1 June.

Gloucester and Northampton stand in their respective ways on Saturday and it’s fourth-placed Saints who will take on table-topping Chiefs at Sandy Park in a repeat of a game which saw Rob Baxter’s men run out comfortable 40-21 winners on the final day of the regular season.

Chris Boyd has made a significant and much-needed mark on Saints in his first season in charge but it will require a minor miracle for this team, which finished 30 league points adrift of Exeter over the course of the 22-game season, to inflict a first ever semi-final defeat on Baxter’s team.

Saints crept into the knock-out stages, despite last weekend’s loss, as fifth-placed Quins lost to Wasps. But whatever happens at Sandy Park on Saturday the East Midlands club’s supporters should welcome the fact they once again have a team capable of threatening the best after several years in the doldrums.

But it’s Chiefs who hold the whip hand with three successive semi-final wins in recent years and a fully loaded team boasting international quality out wide in the form of Jack Nowell, Henry Slade and a resurgent Alex Cuthbert, and a pack full of power with lock Dave Dennis in the form of his life and No 8 Matt Kvesic delivering on his promise.

Kvesic was this week named in the Gallagher Premiership’s dream team and it has been warming to see him maintain the form which saw him blow Leicester off the park in the first game of the season and continue to deliver week in week out in Sam Simmonds’ injury-enforced absence.

The hugely gifted back-row star, for years touted as England’s next openside, has been handed the Rob Baxter treatment since leaving Gloucester in the summer of 2017 as “21st choice” for England’s back row, according to the player himself.

His conditioning, consistency and commitment have all been radically improved on Baxter’s watch and yet another player whose career was stalling has been given a system reboot on England’s south west coast.

Kvesic is enjoying his rugby again and the results are evident. At 27 years old there is no reason at all he should not have an international future beyond the three caps currently in his possession.

Northampton will try to disrupt Exeter’s machine on Saturday. Scrum-half Cobus Reinach, another named this week in the Premiership’s dream team, reminded everyone of his devastating pace last Saturday when he intercepted Ollie Devoto’s misplaced pass and ran the length of the field to score.

The 90-metre try was another clip to add to the South African’s remarkable highlights reel but Saints will need far more than the odd show of individual brilliance to prevent Exeter reaching their fourth final in succession.

There was little evidence to suggest last week that this weekend’s semi-final outcome will prove any different.

We may be wrong and sport has a habit of throwing up surprises. And this is the most exciting league in the world, don’t forget.

In the world of reality a 10 to 15 point home win is the most probable outcome. But thrilling? If we’re honest, that may just have to wait until Chiefs meet Saracens in the final.