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What To Expect At Tory Party Conference

What To Expect At Tory Party Conference

"No champagne please, we are Tories" was the dictat sent from then-chairman Eric Pickles as the Conservatives gathered in Birmingham for their conference in 2009.

Believing they were on the verge of power, overt quaffing of fizz – in public at least – might have given the impression that the General Election was in the bag.

But it wasn't.

Yes, David Cameron may subsequently have taken up residence in Number 10 but only with the help of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. And that had not been the plan.

So as the Conservatives gather again, six years later, this time in the "northern powerhouse" of Manchester having secured a majority for the first time in 18 years – will the bubbly be flowing?

It's something which has divided party insiders. Yes, claim some, the party should celebrate. It was a hard fought election and those MPs and activists who have devoted much of the last year to campaigning, should be allowed to go, as one put to me, "a bit Bullingdon".

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With Labour infighting, the Liberal Democrats all but wiped out and UKIP confined to one MP – the mood music should be good.

For others though this is not a time to gloat. The Sun reports the chancellor has issued an edict calling on the party to "avoid appearing smug or sneering", including at Labour's new leader.

The majority is small, and the tasks of Government remain big.

Not least regarding Syria, with Russian involvement complicating an already complex situation. How will that bear on Mr Cameron's desire to become militarily involved? And the flow of refugees seeking sanctuary continues to pose big challenges.

The age of austerity and protest continues. Thousands are expected to gather outside conference, including Jeremy Corbyn, to oppose continue welfare cuts and trade union reform. A reminder that many still disagree with the Cameron vision.

Divisions not just between inside and out, but within too.

The last time the Conservatives celebrated winning an overall majority at a party conference was in 1992 – the main issue, Europe. In 2015 that issue still looms large.

An increasing number of MPs utter that Mr Cameron will simply not be able to get a satisfactory deal from his EU colleagues.

And while the Prime Minister wants to stays in. Many of his MPs now want out. This week could prove a big reassurance exercise.

The indiscrete chatter at the bars, lubricated by late night drinking will also turn to succession.

With Mr Cameron having surprised everyone about handing over his crown before the next election, activists and MPs are speculating just who will take over.

Johnson? Osborne? May? All remain the favourites. But could Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan be in with a shout?

Despite all this – the 2015 conference – could be remembered for one thing, Michael Ashcroft.

Having brought forward the serialisation of his book, including those allegations involving a pig, to overshadow this conference, it is believed it is keeping his most damaging allegations until Monday.

It's those allegations which might flatten the champers for some.