Fact Check: Trump's Claim That US Inflation Hit Its Highest Level in History Under Biden Is False

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Claim:

Inflation was the highest in U.S. history under President Joe Biden.

Rating:

Rating: False
Rating: False

Context:

While it is true that certain items, like some groceries, saw steep price increases during Biden's administration, the overall inflation rate was much higher in the 1970s and early 1980s.

 

Former U.S. President Donald Trump claimed during the Sept. 10, 2024, presidential debate with Vice President Kamala Harris that inflation was the worst it's ever been under President Joe Biden:

Trump brought up inflation several times during the debate:

When I had it, I had tariffs and yet I had no inflation. Look, we've had a terrible economy because inflation has — which is really known as a country buster. It breaks up countries. We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation's history. We were at 21%. But that's being generous because many things are 50, 60, 70 and 80% higher than they were just a few years ago. This has been a disaster for people, for the middle class, but for every class.

[…]

I had no inflation, virtually no inflation. They had the highest inflation perhaps in the history of our country because I've never seen a worse period of time. People can't go out and buy cereal or bacon or eggs or anything else. These — the people of our country are absolutely dying with what they've done.

[…]

They have no idea what a good economy is. Their oil policies — every single policy — and remember this: She is Biden. She's trying to get away from Biden. I don't know the gentleman, she says. She is Biden. The worst inflation we've ever had. A horrible economy because inflation has made it so bad and she can't get away with that.

A thorough examination of historical inflation data showed that however high it was under Biden, it was far worse in the 1970s and early 1980s. We have therefore rated this claim "False."

As Snopes has previously reported, inflation soared between January 2021, when Biden took office, and June 2022, when it reached a peak of 9.1%. Data from the World Bank, charted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, showed consumer prices in 2022 were 8% higher than the previous year:

(St Louis Federal Reserve)

But as the chart also shows, while the inflation rate in 2022 was at its highest in more than 40 years, it was much higher in 1981 (10.3%), 1980 (13.5%), 1979 (11.3%), 1975 (9.1%) and 1974 (11.1%). As Trump was alive in those years, he has indeed seen a "worse period of time," inflation-wise, contrary to his assertion during the debate.

Trump suggested there had been a 21% increase in consumer prices to support his claim. Previous Snopes reporting shows he may have been referring to a cumulative grocery price increase under Biden; that is, the increase in the cost of groceries between the moment Biden took office in January and more than three years later in 2024 — as opposed to a year-on-year inflation rate. Indeed grocery prices increased 21.1% between January 2021 and August 2024, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is correct that grocery prices had not seen such a steep increase over such a period of time, at least since records began in 1960. The reason this isn't reflected in the overall inflation rate is that the "basket of goods" used to calculate the consumer price index includes items beyond groceries, such as housing, transportation, clothing and medical care.

Our research has not revealed that other consumer items had a 50% to 80% increase in prices in the same period of time. We calculated that the electricity cost per kilowatt-hour increased about 30% during Biden's presidency, due in large part to increased energy costs brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Sources:

'12-Month Percentage Change, Consumer Price Index, Selected Categories'. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm. Accessed 11 Sept. 2024.

'Bureau of Labor Statistics Data'. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/APU000072610?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true. Accessed 11 Sept. 2024.

"Concepts." Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/concepts.htm. Accessed 11 Sept. 2024.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food at Home in U.S. City Average. 11 Sept. 2024, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11.

Hardinges, Nick. 'Meme Accurately Shows Inflation-Driving Profits for 15 Corporations?' Snopes, 7 May 2024, https://www.snopes.com//fact-check/inflation-profits-corporations-2023/.

Inflation, Consumer Prices for the United States. 2 July 2024, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA.

News, A. B. C. 'READ: Harris-Trump Presidential Debate Transcript'. ABC News, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542. Accessed 11 Sept. 2024.

Rascouët-Paz, Anna. 'Core Inflation in US at Its Lowest Since April 2021?' Snopes, 21 June 2024, https://www.snopes.com//fact-check/inflation-lowest-since-april-2021/.

---. 'Meme Comparing Economy Under Trump and Biden Contains False Numbers'. Snopes, 12 July 2024, https://www.snopes.com//fact-check/biden-trump-economy-meme/.

---. 'Was Inflation Really 9% When Biden Became President?' Snopes, 10 May 2024, https://www.snopes.com//fact-check/biden-inflation-rate-took-office/.