Factcheck: Christmas won't be more expensive under Labour

Claim

The Conservatives claimed that Christmas for families across Britain would be a third more expensive under Labour.

Background

The Conservatives have taken a selection of household spending commitments that are usually made around the festive period, including food and drink, to car travel to visit relatives. It says the total cost of Christmas would rise from £321.31 to £424.97.

The analysis compiled by the party says the average Christmas meal would be nearly £20 more expensive under a Labour government, energy bills would rise by almost £45, water bills would go up by more than £17, fuel duty on car travel would increase by £9 and a windfall tax on oil companies would mean an extra £7.50 on petrol and £5.42 on heating in December.

Reality

The Tories assume Christmas dinner under Corbyn would be more expensive based on suggestions made by John McDonnell back in 2007, during his leadership contest against Gordon Brown.

In comments made more than a decade ago, the shadow chancellor said Britain should “consider taxing foods according to the number of air miles they have travelled”. No such policy appears in the 2019 Labour manifesto.

Related: We’ve crunched the numbers – nationalisation would be a bargain | David Hall

To estimate the cost of a food miles tax, the Tories use the EU’s non-EU food tariffs regime to make their assumptions. However, such import tariffs would arguably be more likely under Boris Johnson’s party, as he has kept open the possibility of a no-deal Brexit next year.

The shopping basket used by the Tories to assess the cost of a Labour Christmas is entirely sourced from abroad. Though there are seasonal variations, half of all food consumed in the UK is grown and reared domestically. Still, the party lists turkeys from Hungary, Brussels sprouts from South Africa, Maris Piper potatoes from Israel, parsnips from France and chocolates from Italy. The Tories assume families do not want to buy British.

The party says its policy of freezing fuel duty at 2010-11 prices has saved the average car driver £9.26 a month on average over nine years, but that Corbyn and McDonnell voted against this policy back in 2011.

It uses this as evidence of how much fuel duty would rise under Labour, though the party has no such policy in its manifesto. Even if Labour restored the fuel duty escalator – which previously raised the tax in line with inflation each year – it would only rise from the 2010-11 level of 57.95p per litre to around 59p per litre, little more than a penny difference.

The Tory costing for the price of energy and gas under Labour is based on energy prices in Germany, noting that Labour has spoken favourably of publicly owned German utilities. It argues that under privatisation, water bills in Britain have fallen by a third. It simply reverses this to asses the cost of publicly owned water, and simply applies German prices to Britain for energy.

Labour argues that its nationalisation plan would save consumers money, however this is uncertain because of the difficulties that might come with nationalisation. The party also wants to raise investment to tackle the climate emergency, which could make it harder to cut bills.

The Tory assessment of Labour’s oil company windfall tax is difficult to judge, as Labour has not outlined how much it plans to raise in detail. However, critics warn an oil windfall tax would push up consumer prices. Labour denies this.

Verdict

The Tory warnings are not credible. There are concerns about the challenges of implementing nationalisation and how Labour can balance price cuts with higher investment levels, but the Conservative assessment is overly simplistic. The tariff impact on Christmas dinner is actually more likely under the Tories’ leadership.