Advertisement

Five things we have learned from UK's European elections


1. Brexit party: the undoubted winner

Nigel Farage’s party has clearly come out on top in terms of votes cast, but the party’s effective anti-establishment campaign was still not quite as good as the some of the polls were suggesting.

On the night, the newly formed Brexit party polled around 31.6%, taking votes from the Conservatives and Labour. That placed it ahead of Ukip’s winning performance in 2014, when Farage’s then party achieved 27.5% in a tighter three-way contest.

The Brexit party had a remarkable run in the traditional Labour territory of Wales, winning, for example, in Cardiff. And in the West Midlands and east of England regions the party scored an impressive 38%; up from Ukip’s 2014 results of 31.5% and 34.5% respectively.

But with the party scoring as high as 37% in polling towards the end of the campaign, the final total was at the lower end of expectations. On the other hand, its margin of victory over the second-placed Lib Dems remained considerable.

2. Lib Dems: the emotional winners

The LibDems were the emotional winners with the final results handing the party a healthy second-place finish as almost all pro-remain parties enjoyed a buoyant night.

The party achieved 20.3%, placing it comfortably in second. It had been polling at 16% on average in pre-election polls, but by outperforming that it demonstrated it was the principal beneficiary of voters concerned by Farage’s return to the political stage.

A win in London with 27% was remarkable enough in its own right, but all the more so given the party polled 6.7% in 2014 and had finished fifth behind the Greens. There were no shortage of other notable wins, including in Cambridge, where the city has a Labour MP, and in inner London boroughs such as Lambeth and Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington.

3. Labour: a disappointing night

Labour fared poorly, coming third behind the Lib Dems and losing votes to the pro-second referendum parties and the dominant Brexit party.

The results placed Labour at about 14.1%, sharply down on the last European election where it scored 25.4% and far below its 2017 high water mark, where it secured 40%.

In an election where many people wanted to make a statement about Brexit, the party’s constructive ambiguity left it a weak third, only a couple of points ahead of the Greens. A few days before the election, Labour was still polling just above 20% on average, underlining how far it had fallen in the immediate run-up to election day.

Labour came third in Wales – where it has only once before failed to win (in the 2009 European election). It was defeated in London, losing 13 percentage points to finish at 24%, behind the Lib Dems. It was trounced in the north-east by the Brexit party, falling 17 percentage points to 19%.

4. Conservatives: worse than predicted performance

The Conservatives performed even more poorly than predicted, coming behind the Greens in fifth after early results, with about 9.1% of the vote. That is the worst national election result for the party in its history.

Party insiders will not have wanted to trail the Greens, but that looked likely as the failure to deliver Brexit by 29 March severely damaged the normally dominant party.

There was little comfort from regional results. While the party might perhaps have expected to score 8% in London, it also scored 10% in the eastern region and 11% in the West Midlands. The only comfort is that it is obvious where the party needs to fish for votes: from the Brexit party.

5. Second referendum: almost all parties in favour had a good night

The other pro-second referendum parties did well, with the exception of Change UK.

The Greens achieved a share of 12.1%, comfortably ahead of the 8% achieved in the previous two European elections. The SNP’s 38% in Scotland was well above the 29% it obtained in 2014 (although only one percentage point ahead of its 2017 general election share).

Plaid Cymru came second in Wales on 19.6%, up four percentage points from last time. Only Change UK struggled, finishing just ahead of Ukip at 3.4%, reflecting a crowded field of anti-Brexit parties.

Most significantly, the share of the two unambiguously pro-Brexit parties – the Brexit party and Ukip – was 34.9%, markedly lower than the aggregate total of the pro-second referendum parties (the Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, the Scottish National party and Plaid) at 40.3%.