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Flu reaches epidemic levels in parts of UK as Japanese strain dominates

Statistics from Public Health England show a 2.5 fold rise in cases in the last two weeks - AP
Statistics from Public Health England show a 2.5 fold rise in cases in the last two weeks - AP

Flu has reached epidemic levels in some parts of the UK with the “Japanese” strain now dominant after the NHS failed to vaccinate against it, official figures show.

Latest data from Public Health England shows that cases of flu have risen by 150 per cent in two weeks, fuelling a “significant excess” of elderly deaths.

The statistics show that epidemic levels have already been reached in the city of York, with Herefordshire and north Somerset close behind.

Health officials said the current season is the worst for seven years. If trends continue, an epidemic will be declared across England within a fortnight.

GPs last night urged sufferers to stay at home, rather than adding to pressures on practices and fuelling the spread of the virus.

Mapped: how flu cases are spreading this winter
Mapped: how flu cases are spreading this winter

Senior doctors have accused health officials of fuelling the crisis, by attempting to cut costs on vaccines.

Health officials had been fearful about the impact of a strain of flu A (H3N2) dubbed “Aussie flu” after it fuelled the worst flu season in Australia for a decade.  

But the new figures suggest that B strains are now dominating, making up more than six in ten hospitalised cases last week.  The vast majority of those cases involve a strain called B-Yamagata - known as “Japanese flu” - which is not covered by the vaccines most patients have received.

Two types of vaccine were available to the NHS - a £5 trivalent version covering three main strains of flu, and an £8 quadrivalent version protecting against four strains.

But NHS senior managers say GPs were put under pressure by health officials to choose the cheaper option - excluding the Japanese strain now spreading through hospitals.

How widespread is flu where you live?
How widespread is flu where you live?

The latest statistics suggest around 4,500 people were admitted to hospital with flu last week.

Of those, 61 per cent - were suffering influenza B, the vast majority with the B-Yamagata strain.

Dr Nick Scriven, President of the Society of Acute Medicine said: “It’s very clear that Japanese flu is pushing up admission rates, and having a major impact on intensive care units - it can be really nasty.”

It follows concern that the vaccinations are failing to sufficiently protect the elderly against the “Aussie flu” strain, with a new type of jab planned for next year, after last year’s had zero effectiveness among over 65s.

Japanese flu explainer
Japanese flu explainer

Dr Scriven said: “We need to look again at the decisions the NHS is making on vaccinations; year after year, we are not getting it right.”

The new data shows “significant excess” deaths last week among over 65 in England, and among those in all age groups in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Eighteen local authorities now have high levels of flu, the PHE figures show, while one -York - has crossed the epidemic threshold of 109 cases per 100,000 people. In Herefordshire there are 102.5 cases per 100,000 people, with 95.3 cases per 100,000 people in north Somerset.

Across the country, the figure is 53.1 cases per 100,000 people - a rise of 152 per cent in two weeks, with 120 deaths so far from flu this winter.

Hospitalisations due to flu continue to increase into the New Year
Hospitalisations due to flu continue to increase into the New Year

Figures from internet surveillance suggest more than 15 per cent of people have suffered flu like illness in the past week - amounting to more than 8 million people.

More than 31,000 are estimated to have visited their GP because of flu symptoms in the last week.

Professor Helen Stokes-Lampard, Chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said family doctors were under “huge” pressures as she begged patients to stay away if they could look after themselves.

“We do encourage patients who are ill to think hard about whether they do need to see a GP – not just in terms of reducing pressures on the NHS, but to minimise the possibility of passing viruses, such as flu, to other people, particularly in at-risk groups, such as those with long-term conditions or pregnant women,” she said.

Professor Paul Cosford, medical director, PHE said the hospital admissions reflected “the most significant flu season since the winter of 2010/11 and the preceding pandemic year of 2009”.

He stressed that the current national levels have not crossed the epidemic threshold.

An NHS England spokesperson said: “Young children, who are most likely to spread flu, are now given the quadrivalent vaccine, which is the most effective protection for them. But for older people, medical experts have advised GPs that it was unlikely to provide them with extra benefits, so GPs and pharmacists took account of this when many months ago they ordered their stocks for this flu season. Looking ahead to next flu season, the latest research will be factored in to help GPs decide the best vaccines for next year."

More and more of England is experiencing a flu epidemic
More and more of England is experiencing a flu epidemic