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Forget the withdrawal bill – things could now move very quickly for Theresa May


After the 2017 general election, when Theresa May’s majority evaporated, George Osborne – the chancellor whom she had brutally sacked – described her as a “dead woman walking”.

In some ways, the miracle is how a prime minister, with something of a reverse Midas touch when it comes to politics, has kept walking for nearly two years since then. But with just days left of her prime-ministership, she was determined to outline one last big, bold offer on Brexit. Ignoring the requests of advisers and ministers to wait until after tomorrow’s European elections, she pressed ahead with a major speech.

The speech had a serious argument. There’s a lot in it with which it is hard to disagree, including her admission that Brexit was more complicated than many had claimed, and would require compromise. Quite. The problem is that the prime minister herself had spent quite some time in office implying that everything was rather binary because Brexit just meant Brexit. Indeed, it was her early actions in office – for example, her stubborn refusal to guarantee the rights of EU nationals living in the UK – that helped exacerbate the divisions of the referendum.

Discussing the substance of yesterday’s speech is beside the point. The problem was the messenger, not the message

There was a powerful logic to much of what May argued. But the speech stuck in the craw of many, especially the implication that the government would not just allow a vote on, but also would implement, a second referendum on Brexit.

From my perspective, a further referendum in the absence of a clear electoral mandate for one would be a democratic outrage. I believe it would only further deepen divisions in this country over Brexit, would compound problems in Europe, and would give the SNP carte blanche to demand a rerun in Scotland. But I recognise that if a determined majority of MPs insist on one, it would politically be pretty much impossible to avoid without dissolving parliament. What the prime minister should have said yesterday was that there was no way she personally would ever lead a government to one.

But discussing the substance of yesterday’s speech is somewhat beside the point. The problem was more about the messenger than the message. Many Conservative MPs are just not willing to listen to arguments from a party leader who they think has betrayed them. It’s hard to find a single Tory backbencher who thinks there’s any real way forward for the prime minister. Eurosceptic MPs who literally offered to build statues to honour her now publicly demand her resignation.

Of course, the prime minister was not actually expecting to win the support of the remaining Conservative rebels. Although 90% of Tory MPs backed her Brexit deal on 29 March, including every single cabinet minister who resigned over Brexit, 34 Conservative MPs refused to do so. It seemed nigh on impossible to persuade 30 of them to switch position, which would allow her deal to pass. So, as one senior Downing Street figure put it to me, they were putting themselves “entirely” in “Labour’s hands”.

Labour isn’t listening. Although we tend to focus on the Conservatives’ political crisis, Labour itself is bitterly split. John McDonnell wants a deal to cauterise the Brexit problem, whereas Keir Starmer and the powerful chief whip, Nick Brown, back a new referendum. Jeremy Corbyn isn’t powerful enough to move in either direction and so keeps sitting on the fence. Meanwhile, Labour haemorrhages votes to the Brexit party in one direction, and the Lib Dems in another.

Related: May's offer was neither 'new' nor bold. It will be her final failure | Tom Kibasi

Although the prime minister’s speech included offers to various groups within parliament (including the bloc of Labour MPs opposed to a second referendum), none believe she has the political patronage or durability to cash the cheques she wrote just yesterday. As her credit dries up, there’s no incentive for any group to move to support this deal. It’s hard to see this as anything other than the endgame for her prime-ministership.

Since the speech yesterday, a series of previously loyal Conservative MPs have declared against her Brexit plan. Support for her deal is going backwards. The withdrawal agreement bill (Wab)has not even been published yet, but barring a big change of position from a major group of MPs, it would be irresponsible to bring it forward. At this stage there seems zero prospect of a majority at second reading.

A Conservative leadership contest is now imminent, with Brexit a running sore. With well over a dozen possible candidates, events could move extremely rapidly. At the core will be the question of how to find a Brexit policy that can succeed in this parliament where this prime minister has so spectacularly failed.

Expect unicorn-chasing, a potential race to the bottom, and simple answers to complex problems. It is often repeated that all political careers end in failure, unless politicians leave on their own terms. With the Conservatives expected to be knocked into fifth position in the European elections, sadly Theresa May seems about to prove just that point.

• Henry Newman is the director of Open Europe. He has worked in the Cabinet Office and Ministry of Justice