France Attacks Needed Weeks Of Planning

Friday 13th was a bad day for the so-called Islamic State with the loss of its most notorious propagandist Mohammed Emwazi and of the strategic town of Sinjar.

It was catastrophic for France, too, following the Paris massacres at the hands of Islamic militants .

But the confluence of events is not deliberate. Rather it is an evil coincidence.

Jihadists no doubt will be crowing on social media that what happened in Paris shows how quickly violent groups can reach into the heart of Europe.

But the reality is that a series of co-ordinated attacks on the scale and sophistication of what hit Paris on 13 November requires weeks, at least, of planning.

Al Qaeda is known to have been plotting a Mumbai-style massacre in Europe.

Five years ago the target was believed to be Britain.

There was intelligence that the Thames may even be used by a terrorist gunboat.

That threat was disrupted, Sky sources said at the time.

The plotters then shifted their attention to Europe.

The latest Paris atrocities should not be seen as part of the same plot but as part of the same intent.

For jihadi groups a massacre of this sort is the high point of their ambitions.

It is intended to provoke an over-reaction from state authorities.

The 9/11 horrors provoked war in Afghanistan and were later dishonestly used as part of the argument for war in Iraq.

The terror operation in Paris is also intended to fracture French society.

France has the highest Muslim population in Europe.

Many entirely peaceful and patriotic followers of the faith live in the poorest banlieues of the nation's cities.

Some feel left out of the wider French social structures even though the country has, for years, followed a policy of assimilation to try to reinforce the notion of 'Frenchness' among all its citizens.

The terrorists want to provoke inter-religion frictions.

France will have to work hard to make sure they don't allow them this success.

There will be little doubt that so-called Islamic State is top of the list of suspects.

It has been reeling from coalition airstrikes and loses to Kurd forces on the ground.

It claimed responsibility for the downing of the Russian airliner over Sinai showing it had ambitions to kill outside its 'borders'.

But it is also in competition for jihadi pre-eminence with al Qaeda, which pioneered the multiple simultaneous attack.

The distinction will not matter too much to their victims.

If one or other group says it ordered the atrocities it will help investigators to focus their work.

But the two organisations have identical aims in the west.

Al Qaeda always had the skills set, now Islamic State has both the motive, the recruits, and the money.

They are already close ideologically.

A terrorist alliance between the two could be much worse.

:: The Foreign Office says those concerned about British nationals caught up in the attacks should call 020 7008 0000.

:: Ireland's Department of Foreign Affairs says anyone concerned about Irish nationals caught up in the attacks should call 01 408 2000.

:: Watch a special report at 8.30pm on Sky News, skynews.com and our mobile apps.