GCSEs: overhaul means results are ‘incomparable to previous years’

The “unprecedented changes” to this year’s GCSE exams in English and maths means results cannot be compared with those of previous years, headteachers have warned as hundreds of thousands of pupils wait to receive their results on Thursday morning.

The changes are the biggest overhaul of the examination system in England since GCSEs were introduced to replace O-levels nearly 30 years ago.

The results will be the first of the revised GCSEs sat by pupils in England, the culmination of a shake-up launched by the former education secretary Michael Gove. The new courses have a greater emphasis on final exam marks, with little or no coursework counting towards final grades, and a new grading scheme running from 9 at the top to 1 as the lowest rank.

The sheer extent of the changes means that year-on-year comparisons are “unjust and unreliable” according to Paul Whiteman, the general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers.

“School leaders have worked hard to help students and their families to understand the change from A-G to 9-1 grades,” said Whiteman, who was concerned that schools may be unfairly penalised in the Department for Education’s performance tables. “But there’s still plenty of uncertainty about what the results really show.

“Until all of the reformed GCSEs are fully implemented and we’ve seen a few more years of the 9-1 system, those who seek to hold schools to account should refrain from comparing this year’s results to last.

“They are far from a like-for-like comparison and for any drop in results, support rather than sanction is the appropriate path to take.”

The new system sets a 4 as equivalent to a C under the previous rankings, while the top grades A* and A will be split into three grades, 7, 8 and 9 – with 9 awarded to those with marks at the top of the old A* grade.

Much speculation has centred on how many students are likely to be awarded a grade 9. Using a formula provided by the exam regulator Ofqual, based on last year’s results the numbers could be in the low five figures, perhaps about 2% of those sitting the exams in England.

Sally Collier, Ofqual’s chief regulator, has warned that the number of pupils attaining 9s in English literature, English language and maths this year could be as low as the hundreds, out of 500,000 entries in England. Last year only 1.1% of pupils obtained A*s in maths and both English courses.

Collier said the new courses allowed students to more fully display their abilities and knowledge, and would help them go on to further study. “In turn, the new 9 to 1 grade system signals to employers and others that this year’s students have studied new, more challenging content, and better differentiates between their achievements,” she said.

Collier said that Ofqual used a process known as comparable outcomes, which sets the proportion of grades by the results attained by the same group of pupils at primary school four years before, to make sure this year’s pupils did not suffer as lab rats for the new exams.

“If a student receives a grade 7 today, they could have expected to have received a grade A last year,” she said. “And if they get a grade 4, they could have expected to get a grade C in 2016.

“I hope all pupils collecting their results today believe they have got the results their performance deserves. But if they think there has been a marking error, they should speak to their school and consider asking for a review of marking.”

Collier noted that there had been “some unusual and tragic events this summer” – a reference to the Grenfell Tower fire that affected residents and nearby schools, and the terrorist bombing in Manchester.

Parents could be forgiven for being confused by the new grading system, especially as many sat the old O-levels. The DfE’s decision to label a 4 as a “standard pass” and a 5 as a “strong pass” may not have helped – although a 4 means that pupils will not be forced to resit the exams in English and maths while they remain in education.

The National Union of Teachers remained opposed to the new format. “Putting more emphasis on final exams is hitting hardest those who require the most support, such as disadvantaged students and students with special education need,” said Kevin Courtney, the union’s general secretary.

Mark Dawe of the Association of Employment and Learning Providers said the advent of the new, tougher GCSEs should spell the end of compulsory resits, because of the persistent high failure rates among pupils. Instead pupils should take applied “functional skills” in schools.

“English and maths are important for the whole population but the resits policy is leading to mass failure,” Dawe said. “The government should abandon it now and instead focus on functional skills being a good alternative.”

The resits policy has meant that entries for English and maths have been swelled by older pupils, so the key measure in the results will be among 16-year-olds. Last year in England alone, the proportion getting good grades of C or above in five subjects dipped below 67% among all pupils but this year’s exams are expected to show an improvement.

The new exams have only been sat in England, further accentuating the divergence in education systems between it and Wales and Northern Ireland since devolution.