German election: Social Democrats hold edge in race to choose Merkel's successor as chancellor

Germany's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) won the biggest share of the vote in a national election on Sunday, narrowly beating outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel 's Christian Democrats (CDU) in a closely fought race that will determine who succeeds the long-time leader.

Election officials said early on Monday that a count of all 299 constituencies showed the SPD won 25.9 per cent of the vote, ahead of 24.1 per cent for the CDU. No winning party in a German national election had previously taken less than 31 per cent of the vote.

The results plunged Germany into political uncertainty and mean it could be weeks or even months before the identity of Mrs Merkel’s successor as chancellor is clear.

Olaf Scholz of the SPD and Armin Laschet of Mrs Merkel’s CDU both claimed victory on Sunday night and said they would seek to form a coalition government. They say they want a resolution by the end of the year.

“The vote of the citizens is unequivocal,” Mr Scholz told German television. “I think it's also a very clear mandate for us to make sure we get a good and capable government for Germany.

“We want to form the next government. Citizens want a change and they want the next chancellor to be from the SPD," he said.

Mr Laschet hit back, saying “a vote for the CDU is a vote against a left-wing government" and “that is why we will do everything in our power to form a federal government under the leadership of the CDU.”

But his defiance could not disguise the fact that it was a devastating evening for Mrs Merkel’s party, which suffered heavy losses and appeared headed for its worst ever result.

The extent of the defeat was underlined by the SPD capturing the voting district in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which Angela Merkel has won eight times since 1990.

“It is a loss of votes, which is not good,” he conceded. “We've seen a situation where for the first time in 16 years of Angela Merkel, the chancellor hasn't run for office. Nobody had the boost of being in office.”

The results were damaging for Mr Laschet, who threw away an early lead in the campaign and may now face moves from within his party to oust him as leader.

“I will discuss what needs to be done when the time has come,” he told German television when asked about his future.

SPD supporters were jubilant after projections predicted significant gains for the party, whose chances had been written off by most observers until a few months ago.

“We are ahead, so we have the mandate to form a government,” said Lars Klingbeil, the SPD general secretary.

It was a personal vindication for Mr Scholz, who was rejected as SPD leader two years ago only to be recalled to run for chancellor, and who seemingly single-handedly turned around the party’s fortunes.

The next stage will see the parties negotiating to form a coalition, with the first batch of meetings due during the week.

Until a formal agreement is agreed and a coalition contract signed, Mrs Merkel's outgoing administration will continue to run the country.

Absolute majorities are rare under Germany’s proportional representation system, but no party has ever faced forming a government with as low a share of the vote.

Germany is likely to face a three-party coalition for the first time in its postwar history.

That could give the Greens, who came third with around 14.8 per cent, a decisive role despite a disappointing election campaign that saw them squander an early lead.

And it could make the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), who came fourth with 11.5 per cent, into kingmakers.

Both Mr Scholz and Mr Laschet will now seek to woo those parties into an alliance.

The spectre of a hard-Left government receded after projections suggested a “red-red-green” coalition of the SPD, Greens and the Left Party, a successor to the East German communist party, would not be able to command a majority.

A coalition with the Left Party would never have been the centrist Mr Scholz’s first choice, but he could have used the threat of it to cajole the FDP into supporting him, after they made clear they would do whatever was necessary to avert “red-red-green”.

Without that threat there is a risk of stalemate in coalition talks. The Greens are known to favour a coaltion with the SPD, while the FDP lost no time in stating their preference for the CDU.

Both the SPD and the CDU appeared to rule out a continuation of Mrs Merkel’s “grand coalition” of the two parties.
“I think everyone believes that the working style of the Grand Coalition as we have had it, is not the way forward,” Mr Laschet told German television.

Meanwhile, it was a disappointing night for both the Greens, who had led the polls for several weeks, and the far-Right Alternative for Germany party, which fell into fifth place with 10.3 per cent.

It was also a bitter evening for Mrs Merkel, who remained unbeaten in her 16 years in power but could only look on as her party foundered without her.

“Those were 16 good years for Germany,” Mr Laschet said.