Giro d’Italia’s decisive time trial will shape duel of contrasting styles between Simon Yates and Tom Dumoulin

When the 2018 Giro d’Italia was unveiled in a Milan ceremony last November, the reigning champion Tom Dumoulin sat on the platform beneath the big screen transfixed by one stage in particular: No 16 on 22 May, from Trento to Rovereto.

The 34km individual time trial slotted into the start of final week was a present for a rider like Dumoulin, the best ITT rider in the world, and it is likely to be as important as he hoped it would be. When the Giro resumes on Tuesday following a rest day of sleep and reconnaissance, the Dutchman plans to ravage Simon Yates’s 2min 11sec lead in the overall standings.

Dumoulin’s race strategy has gone almost entirely to plan so far: win the opening stage (a short time trial in Jerusalem), sit on the wheel of mountaineers like Chris Froome and Thibaut Pinot for a couple of weeks, grab back the Maglia Rosa on stage 16 and cling on to Rome.

What has snuck up on him – and most of us – is Yates’s unexpected brilliance. On Sunday’s stage 15 the Briton produced a fierce double-kick which first dumped a weary Froome and then left a disconsolate Dumoulin gasping for air. Cycling is game of easily defined measures of time, but those minutes and seconds are influenced by a complex psychological warfare; Yates’ onslaught on the Costalissoio will have taken a toll on his rivals’ confidence as well as their legs.

Whatever happens from here, the 25-year-old from Bury has elevated himself into a higher category of rider. Three stylish stage victories have seen to that, and he is now the favourite to lift the famous twisting trophy, with three summit-finishes to exploit from Thursday to Sunday which will test Dumoulin’s resolve.

Yet Yates will face a gruelling examination of his own resilience. Dumoulin will try to rip his lead to shreds in the time trial; the duo of Pinot and Domenico Pozzovivo — both around two and a half minutes behind – will plot attacks on the bare face of the Alpine mountains; and Froome, trailing by nearly five minutes, will not go down without a fight, not while there is so much climbing still to be done.

And so it comes down to who can cash in on their home bankers and who can limit the damage on tricky away days, playing to strengths and hiding weaknesses as one boxing glove is passed between them.

How much time can Dumoulin win back on Tuesday? It would not be unusual to win such a lengthy time trial by more than a minute, while Yates is likely to clock outside the top five times. For context, Dumoulin won his 2017 world time trial title (over 31km) by 57 seconds on a day when Froome – a talented time trialist – finished a hefty 1min 21sec back. Dumoulin could reasonably be in pink on Wednesday morning.

A Yates victory at this Giro would bring a welcome change as the first British winner of a grand tour outside Team Sky – he rides for Australian team Mitchelton-Scott – although it would inevitably come with a footnote pointing to his positive test for the banned substance terbutaline in April 2016. His team, Orica-GreenEdge, took full responsibility for an administrative error and Yates was given a four-month ban for “non-intentional doping” which ruled him out of the 2016 Tour de France.

Beneath other clouds like Froome’s ongoing case and the controversial decision to begin in Israel, this compelling duel does at least bring some focus back to the racing. It is a well-balanced fight with both the leading contenders forced to adapt outside their comfort zones over the final week. First comes Tuesday’s time trial, and Dumoulin must now take control of the race over 34km from Trento to Rovereto, just as he imagined he would.