Gradually reopening schools unlikely to lead to second wave of coronavirus, says study

The gradual reopening of primary schools across England alone is unlikely to push the coronavirus transmission R-rate past the value of one, research suggests.

From June 1 children in nursery, Reception, Year 1 and Year 6 were encouraged to return to school by the Government.

The decision to gradually reopen schools after more than two months of closure in the coronavirus lockdown, was met with opposition by teaching unions and some local authorities.

A survey from the National Education Union (NEU) suggested that more than two in five (44 per cent) primary schools in England did not open their doors to more children on Monday.

Infectious disease experts from the University of Warwick said the gradual reopening of primaries is unlikely to lead to a second wave of Covid-19, but "uncertainty" remains over the impact of other recent changes that have eased the lockdown.

Any school reopening policy should be “implemented gradually” to mitigate risk – especially in light of other policies to relax the lockdown, said the experts.

The proportion of schools that have reopened to more pupils varies significantly depending on the region, as only 8 per cent of primary schools in north-west England opened to all the priority year groups.

The researchers investigated a range of school reopening scenarios, including the current policy for England, to model the impact upon the spread of Covid-19 across the country.

Professor Matt Keeling, lead author of the study at the University of Warwick, said: “Our work indicates that the current policy of Reception, Year 1 and Year 6 children returning to school is likely to result in a small increase in the reproduction number.

“In isolation this is unlikely to push R above 1, but there still remains uncertainty over the consequences of other recent changes that have relaxed the lockdown.”

The researchers have called for the impact of schools reopening to be carefully monitored – and for the Government to consider reintroducing lockdown measures if there is a significant rise in new cases.

Schools, colleges and nurseries closed more than 10 weeks ago due to the Covid-19 outbreak, remaining open only for vulnerable youngsters and the children of key workers.

Anne Longfield, the Children’s Commissioner for England, warned MPs on Wednesday that the scale of children failing to reach their potential amid lengthy school closures was “immense”.

She said eight million children could have been out of school for six months by September – and headteachers fear some disadvantaged children will never return to school.

A separate report, from the Centre for Education and Youth and the University of Exeter, has found that the majority of students feel that learning at home is harder than learning in school or college.

Findings from a poll, of 230 students aged 16 and over, suggest that around a fifth of pupils do not have access.

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